Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho 25.8, Lamar 23.9 at Kibbie Dome in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Idaho wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 49.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Lamar is 1-1, scoring 14 and allowing 26 points per game (-12 per game). Idaho is 0-2, scoring 24 and allowing 52 points per game (-28 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Lamar by 21 and Idaho by 24 about 80% of the time.
Idaho gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Lamar would be favoured by 0.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Lamar 23, Idaho 17. Lamar won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Lamar / Idaho) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho -1.5 → Idaho -4.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | +139 / -175 |
| DraftKings | Idaho -1.5 → Idaho -4.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | +139 / -175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Idaho win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho -2 | 49.7 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Idaho -4.5 | 51.5 | 60% |
| Blended projection | Idaho -4 | 52.1 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Idaho win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 60% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Idaho -1.9 · market Idaho -4.5 · difference -2.6 pts (Idaho view)
- Total
- model 49.7 · market 51.5 · difference -1.8
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Lamar than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Lamar 23.9, Idaho 25.8 | Idaho 55%wrong winner | 7.9 | 9.7 |
| New formula | Lamar 21.7, Idaho 31.2 | Idaho 73%wrong winner | 15.5 | 12.8 |
Final: Lamar 23, Idaho 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Lamar vs Idaho: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Lamar | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.5 | 25.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.0 | 26.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.15 | 6.19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39 | 6.26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.7 | 207.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 160.1 | 220.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 157.0 | 195.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.9 | 235.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.42 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Lamar | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 37.1% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 38.3% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 14.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 13.0% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.33 | 4.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.5 | 69.2 |
| Stat | Lamar | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 47.4% |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.7% | 30.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.7% | 40.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.9% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 71.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.7% | 52.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Lamar schedule · Idaho schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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