Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stephen F. Austin 38.5, SE Louisiana 15.9 at Homer Bryce Stadium in Week 8. That is a heavy edge: Stephen F. Austin wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.6 points and 54.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
SE Louisiana is 4-3, scoring 28.4 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+0.1 per game). Stephen F. Austin is 7-0, scoring 40.9 and allowing 13 points per game (+27.9 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Stephen F. Austin by 45 about 80% of the time.
Stephen F. Austin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stephen F. Austin by about 20.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: SE Louisiana 24, Stephen F. Austin 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.6 points and the total by 14.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | SE Louisiana 15.9, Stephen F. Austin 38.5 | Stephen F. Austin 93%right winner | 1.6 | 14.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: SE Louisiana 24, Stephen F. Austin 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
SE Louisiana vs Stephen F. Austin: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | SE Louisiana | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0 | 35.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.0 | 18.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.54 | 5.82 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.18 | 4.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.5 | 165.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.4 | 227.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.7 | 117.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.8 | 169.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.07 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.79 |
| Sacks per game | 2.77 | 2.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.62 | 1.79 |
| Stat | SE Louisiana | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | -0.11 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 43.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 35.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5% | 11.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6% | 10.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 17.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.60 | 3.35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83 | 3.26 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.7 | 67.5 |
| Stat | SE Louisiana | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.19 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6% | 42.6% |
| Passing success rate | 43.2% | 44.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.7% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 28.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.8% | 28.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0% | 44.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7% | 33.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.1% | 47.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SE Louisiana schedule · Stephen F. Austin schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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