2026 schedule
SE Louisiana Lions
2026 season so far
SE Louisiana is 4-4 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 30.4 points per game (-2.5 per game).
SE Louisiana plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at East Texas A&M in Week 9. We project SE Louisiana 31, East Texas A&M 24 — SE Louisiana wins 68% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Houston Christian Huskies
1-0 · SOS #105
Loss 28-34
Week 1
Our number· pregame
SE Louisiana by 17.7
Total 49.5
DraftKings
SELA -24.5
Total 51.5
Final Houston Christian by 6. Houston Christian beat the spread. 62 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SE Louisiana -24.5 · O/U 51.5 · model vs market -6.8 pts (SE Louisiana view)
ESPN+ Strawberry StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missed - at
South Alabama Jaguars
1-0 · SOS #103
Loss 14-39
Week 1
Our number· pregame
South Alabama by 20.1
Total 54.1
DraftKings
USA -13.5
Total 53.5
Final South Alabama by 25. South Alabama beat the spread. 53 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Alabama -13.75 (open South Alabama -12.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · ML +397.5 / -542.5 · South Alabama 81% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +10 pct pts (South Alabama view)
ESPN+ Hancock Whitney StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit - vs
North Alabama Lions
1-2 · SOS #49
Win 30-25
Week 2
Our number· pregame
SE Louisiana by 8.4
Total 54
DraftKings
SELA -6.5
Total 51.5
Final SE Louisiana by 5. North Alabama beat the spread. 55 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SE Louisiana -6.5 · O/U 51.5 (open 49.5) · ML +162 / -204 · SE Louisiana 64% no-vig · model vs market +1.9 pts, +7 pct pts (SE Louisiana view)
ESPN+ Strawberry Stadium - at
UL Monroe Warhawks
0-3 · SOS #97
Win 38-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UL Monroe by 34.2
Total 56.2
DraftKings
ULM -9.5
Total 48.5
Final SE Louisiana by 3. SE Louisiana beat the spread. 73 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UL Monroe -9.75 (open UL Monroe -10.5) · O/U 48.25 · ML +310 / -415 · UL Monroe 77% no-vig · model vs market +24.5 pts, +22 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
ESPN+ Malone StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed - at
Northwestern State Demons
0-5 · SOS #107
Win 52-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
SE Louisiana by 22.6
Total 60.6
DraftKings
SELA -37.5
Total 60.5
Final SE Louisiana by 31. Northwestern State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SE Louisiana -37.5 (open SE Louisiana -39.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 61.5) · model vs market +14.9 pts (Northwestern State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KIER)ESPN+ Turpin StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - at
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
3-3 · SOS #85
Loss 3-13
Week 6
Our number· pregame
UT Rio Grande Valley by 7.9
Total 54.5
DraftKings
SELA -3
Total 54.5
Final UT Rio Grande Valley by 10. UT Rio Grande Valley beat the spread. 16 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Both totals were equally close.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SE Louisiana -3 (open SE Louisiana -4) · O/U 54.5 (open 55.5) · ML -133 / +107 · UT Rio Grande Valley 46% no-vig · model vs market +10.9 pts, +24 pct pts (UT Rio Grande Valley view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 82°F, Wind 14 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMFE)ESPN+ Robert and Janet Vackar StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Lamar Cardinals
5-2 · SOS #104
Win 34-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
SE Louisiana by 1.9
Total 49.5
DraftKings
LAM -5.5
Total 50.5
Final SE Louisiana by 3. SE Louisiana beat the spread. 65 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Lamar -5.5 (open Lamar -4.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 47.5) · ML -195 / +155 · SE Louisiana 37% no-vig · model vs market +7.4 pts, +18 pct pts (SE Louisiana view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 8 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHDC)ESPN+ Strawberry StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks
8-0 · SOS #117
Loss 24-45
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Stephen F. Austin by 22.6
Total 54.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Stephen F. Austin by 21. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 5 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLFK)ESPN+ Homer Bryce StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
East Texas A&M Lions
2-6 · SOS #58
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 31-24 · 68%
Our number
SE Louisiana by 7
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 76°F, Wind 5 mph E, 39% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Memorial Stadium (Commerce, TX)ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - vs
Incarnate Word Cardinals
4-4 · SOS #34
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 26-31 · 36%
Our number
Incarnate Word by 5
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Strawberry StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - vs
McNeese Cowboys
3-5 · SOS #26
Sun, Nov 15, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 29-23 · 65%
Our number
SE Louisiana by 6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Strawberry StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Nicholls Colonels
3-5 · SOS #72
Fri, Nov 20, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 36-18 · 87%
Our number
SE Louisiana by 18
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ John L. Guidry StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Times shown in your local time
SE Louisiana Lions stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-18.7
Adj. offense
17.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 27.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.99 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.90 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 175.9 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 181.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 177.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 223.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.08 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.09 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.4% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.3% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.8% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.7% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.4% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.17 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.99 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 17 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 19 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 59.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.10 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 41.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 36.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 38.6% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 50.9% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 54.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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