Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Alabama 37.1, SE Louisiana 17 at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: South Alabama wins about 91% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 20.1 points and 54 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
SE Louisiana is 0-1, scoring 28 and allowing 34 points per game (-6 per game). South Alabama has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
SE Louisiana plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why South Alabama's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between SE Louisiana by 2 and South Alabama by 43 about 80% of the time.
South Alabama gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Alabama by about 18. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: SE Louisiana 14, South Alabama 39. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.9 points and the total by 1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (SE Louisiana / South Alabama) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Alabama -12.5 → South Alabama -13.75 | 52.5 → 53.5 | +397.5 / -542.5 |
| DraftKings | South Alabama -12.5 → South Alabama -13.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | +425 / -575 |
| Bovada | South Alabama -12.5 → South Alabama -14 | 52.5 → 53.5 | +370 / -510 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Alabama win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Alabama -20 | 54.0 | 91% |
| Market consensus | South Alabama -14 | 53.5 | 81% |
| Blended projection | South Alabama -15 | 54.1 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Alabama win probability
- model 91% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model South Alabama -20.1 · market South Alabama -13.75 · difference +6.4 pts (South Alabama view)
- Total
- model 54.0 · market 53.5 · difference +0.5
Model margin is 6.4 pts more toward South Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | SE Louisiana 17.0, South Alabama 37.1 | South Alabama 91%right winner | 4.9 | 1.0 |
| New formula | SE Louisiana 17.0, South Alabama 40.1 | South Alabama 91%right winner | 1.9 | 4.1 |
Final: SE Louisiana 14, South Alabama 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
SE Louisiana vs South Alabama: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | SE Louisiana | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0 | 26.5#76 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.0 | 30.4#110 |
| Yards per play | 6.54 | 5.54#98 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.18 | 5.85#72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.5 | 208.9#20 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.4 | 182.8#110 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.7 | 180.7#91 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.8 | 204.2#45 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.83#32 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.83#101 |
| Sacks per game | 2.77 | 0.83#136 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.62 | 1.50#38 |
| Stat | SE Louisiana | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.08#36 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.06#101 |
| Success rate | 43.5% | 42.3%#72 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 42.0%#74 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5% | 10.3%#124 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6% | 12.9%#83 |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 11.6%#96 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.7% | 9.4%#9 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.60 | 4.08#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83 | 4.12#99 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | own 30#58 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | own 30#92 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.7 | 70.7#22 |
| Stat | SE Louisiana | South Alabama |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.09#30 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.08#51 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.02#77 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.08 | +0.11#105 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6% | 43.4%#66 |
| Passing success rate | 43.2% | 39.5%#92 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.7% | 15.2%#23 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 27.7%#97 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.8% | 28.0%#45 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0% | 43.4%#45 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7% | 40.1%#62 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.2% | 65.7%#44 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.1% | 69.8%#122 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SE Louisiana schedule · South Alabama schedule · all Week 1 projections
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