Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected SE Louisiana 31.2, North Alabama 22.8 at Strawberry Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: SE Louisiana wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.4 points and 53.9 combined points.
North Alabama is 1-1, scoring 18 and allowing 20.5 points per game (-2.5 per game). SE Louisiana is 0-2, scoring 21 and allowing 36.5 points per game (-15.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Alabama by 14 and SE Louisiana by 31 about 80% of the time.
SE Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour SE Louisiana by about 6.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: North Alabama 25, SE Louisiana 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.4 points and the total by 1.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Alabama / SE Louisiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SE Louisiana -6.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | +162 / -204 |
| DraftKings | SE Louisiana -6.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | +162 / -204 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | SE Louisiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | SE Louisiana -8.5 | 53.9 | 71% |
| Market consensus | SE Louisiana -6.5 | 51.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | SE Louisiana -7 | 52.3 | 68% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- SE Louisiana win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model SE Louisiana -8.4 · market SE Louisiana -6.5 · difference +1.9 pts (SE Louisiana view)
- Total
- model 53.9 · market 51.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 1.9 pts more toward SE Louisiana than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Alabama 22.8, SE Louisiana 31.2 | SE Louisiana 71%right winner | 3.4 | 1.1 |
| New formula | North Alabama 24.4, SE Louisiana 29.2 | SE Louisiana 62%right winner | 0.2 | 1.5 |
Final: North Alabama 25, SE Louisiana 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Alabama vs SE Louisiana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Alabama | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.3 | 31.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.2 | 18.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.26 | 6.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.98 | 5.18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.6 | 208.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 199.4 | 221.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 208.6 | 154.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 288.2 | 178.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08 | 2.77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.17 | 1.62 |
| Stat | North Alabama | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 40.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9% | 13.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 11.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.83 | 2.60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.09 | 3.83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 77.6 | 65.7 |
| Stat | North Alabama | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 48.6% |
| Passing success rate | 32.5% | 43.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0% | 19.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.6% | 30.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1% | 24.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.5% | 44.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.6% | 35.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.7% | 46.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.9% | 66.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Alabama schedule · SE Louisiana schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.