Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UL Monroe 45.2, SE Louisiana 11 at Malone Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: UL Monroe wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 34.2 points and 56.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
SE Louisiana is 1-2, scoring 24 and allowing 32.7 points per game (-8.7 per game). UL Monroe is 0-2, scoring 16.5 and allowing 44 points per game (-27.5 per game).
SE Louisiana plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why UL Monroe's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UL Monroe by 12 and UL Monroe by 57 about 80% of the time.
UL Monroe gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UL Monroe by about 32.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: SE Louisiana 38, UL Monroe 35. SE Louisiana won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 37.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (SE Louisiana / UL Monroe) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UL Monroe -10.5 → UL Monroe -9.75 | 48.25 | +310 / -415 |
| Bovada | UL Monroe -10.5 → UL Monroe -10 | 48 | +310 / -415 |
| DraftKings | UL Monroe -10.5 → UL Monroe -9.5 | 48.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UL Monroe win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UL Monroe -34 | 56.1 | 99% |
| Market consensus | UL Monroe -10 | 48.3 | 77% |
| Blended projection | UL Monroe -14 | 49.6 | 83% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UL Monroe win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference +22 pts
- Margin
- model UL Monroe -34.2 · market UL Monroe -9.75 · difference +24.5 pts (UL Monroe view)
- Total
- model 56.1 · market 48.25 · difference +7.9
Model margin is 24.5 pts more toward UL Monroe than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | SE Louisiana 11.0, UL Monroe 45.2 | UL Monroe 99%wrong winner | 37.2 | 16.9 |
| New formula | SE Louisiana 20.5, UL Monroe 33.0 | UL Monroe 78%wrong winner | 15.5 | 19.5 |
Final: SE Louisiana 38, UL Monroe 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
SE Louisiana vs UL Monroe: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | SE Louisiana | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.0 | 16.5#127 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.7 | 44.0#135 |
| Yards per play | 6.18 | 4.00#137 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.77 | 7.88#133 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.7 | 177.0#72 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.7 | 85.0#135 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.7 | 311.5#138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 205.7 | 268.0#123 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.50#73 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.50#121 |
| Sacks per game | 0.67 | 1.50#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67 | 2.00#103 |
| Stat | SE Louisiana | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | -0.11#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.36#137 |
| Success rate | 41.0% | 38.3%#109 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 55.1%#137 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 6.4%#136 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3% | 16.9%#135 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7% | 13.6%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3% | 13.8%#86 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.00 | 3.30#118 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.95 | 4.79#121 |
| Average starting field position | opp 20 | own 30#84 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 19 | own 30#86 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.7 | 65.5#77 |
| Stat | SE Louisiana | UL Monroe |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.02#95 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.32 | -0.32#134 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.42#136 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22 | +0.27#122 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.0% | 42.1%#88 |
| Passing success rate | 45.9% | 32.4%#127 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.1% | 11.4%#16 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.3% | 22.2%#122 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4% | 46.7%#135 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 21.4%#134 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.5% | 57.7%#134 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 25.0% | 50.0%#118 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 18.8% | 50.0%#48 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: SE Louisiana schedule · UL Monroe schedule · all Week 3 projections
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