Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected SE Louisiana 33.6, Houston Christian 15.9 at Strawberry Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: SE Louisiana wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.7 points and 49.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Houston Christian has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. SE Louisiana has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston Christian by 5 and SE Louisiana by 40 about 80% of the time.
SE Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour SE Louisiana by about 15.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Houston Christian 34, SE Louisiana 28. Houston Christian won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 23.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston Christian / SE Louisiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | SE Louisiana -24.5 | 51.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | SE Louisiana -24.5 | 51.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | SE Louisiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | SE Louisiana -17.5 | 49.4 | 88% |
| Market consensus | SE Louisiana -24.5 | 51.5 | 95% |
| Blended projection | SE Louisiana -23.5 | 52.1 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- SE Louisiana win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model SE Louisiana -17.7 · market SE Louisiana -24.5 · difference -6.8 pts (SE Louisiana view)
- Total
- model 49.4 · market 51.5 · difference -2.1
Model margin is 6.8 pts more toward Houston Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston Christian 15.9, SE Louisiana 33.6 | SE Louisiana 88%wrong winner | 23.7 | 12.6 |
| New formula | Houston Christian 13.4, SE Louisiana 38.3 | SE Louisiana 93%wrong winner | 30.8 | 10.3 |
Final: Houston Christian 34, SE Louisiana 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston Christian vs SE Louisiana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Houston Christian | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 31.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 18.0 |
| Yards per play | 4.38 | 6.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.45 | 5.18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4 | 208.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 131.0 | 221.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.9 | 154.7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.6 | 178.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 2.77 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.45 | 1.62 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 34.7% | 43.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 40.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% | 13.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3% | 11.6% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 13.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.37 | 2.60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86 | 3.83 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 65.7 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 48.6% |
| Passing success rate | 29.5% | 43.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8% | 30.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 24.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.9% | 44.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0% | 35.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.2% | 46.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1% | 66.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston Christian schedule · SE Louisiana schedule · all Week 1 projections
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