Matchup analysis
Our model projects Incarnate Word 31, SE Louisiana 26 at Strawberry Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Incarnate Word wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 57.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Incarnate Word is 4-4 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.5 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+7.2 per game). SE Louisiana is 4-4 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 30.4 points per game (-2.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Incarnate Word by 28 and SE Louisiana by 17 about 80% of the time.
SE Louisiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Incarnate Word is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Incarnate Word vs SE Louisiana: stat comparison
| Stat | Incarnate Word | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.5 | 27.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.3 | 30.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.35 | 5.99 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.76 | 5.90 |
| Rushing yards per game | 171.8 | 175.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 304.0 | 181.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 166.9 | 177.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 220.4 | 223.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.63 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50 | 1.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.13 | 1.00 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.03 | +0.09 |
| Success rate | 45.0% | 41.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 36.4% | 44.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.8% | 12.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2% | 12.7% |
| Havoc rate | 16.4% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 13.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43 | 3.17 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.00 | 3.99 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 17 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 19 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 74.9 | 59.6 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | SE Louisiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | +0.07 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.5% | 40.8% |
| Passing success rate | 44.4% | 41.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.6% | 19.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.5% | 36.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 38.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.1% | 50.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.0% | 65.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.4% | 54.7% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Incarnate Word schedule · SE Louisiana schedule · all Week 10 projections
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