Matchup analysis
Our model projects Stephen F. Austin 44, Houston Christian 10 at Homer Bryce Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Stephen F. Austin wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.1 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Houston Christian is 4-4 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.9 and allowing 26.6 points per game (+2.3 per game). Stephen F. Austin is 8-0 against the 127th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.4 and allowing 14.4 points per game (+27 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stephen F. Austin by 11 and Stephen F. Austin by 56 about 80% of the time.
Stephen F. Austin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Stephen F. Austin by about 31. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Houston Christian vs Stephen F. Austin: stat comparison
| Stat | Houston Christian | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.9 | 41.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.6 | 14.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.47 | 7.25 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91 | 5.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 154.6 | 231.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.3 | 250.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 221.1 | 119.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 210.9 | 232.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 1.13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 3.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.13 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04 | -0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.6% | 44.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 36.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.6% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 18.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.3% | 12.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.27 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.25 | 3.18 |
| Average starting field position | opp 16 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.0 | 66.5 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Stephen F. Austin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.7% | 47.6% |
| Passing success rate | 37.3% | 42.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.3% | 16.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9% | 32.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.3% | 20.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.9% | 46.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 28.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.0% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0% | 53.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston Christian schedule · Stephen F. Austin schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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