Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Stephen F. Austin 28.6, Abilene Christian 24.3 at Wildcat Stadium (TX) in Week 2. That is a lean: Stephen F. Austin wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.3 points and 52.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Stephen F. Austin is 2-0, scoring 41 and allowing 17 points per game (+24 per game). Abilene Christian is 0-2, scoring 12 and allowing 27 points per game (-15 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stephen F. Austin by 27 and Abilene Christian by 18 about 80% of the time.
Abilene Christian gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Stephen F. Austin is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Stephen F. Austin 26, Abilene Christian 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.7 points and the total by 19.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Stephen F. Austin / Abilene Christian) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Stephen F. Austin -3 | 50.5 | -160 / +128 |
| DraftKings | Stephen F. Austin -3 | 50.5 | -160 / +128 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Abilene Christian win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Stephen F. Austin -4.5 | 52.9 | 39% |
| Market consensus | Stephen F. Austin -3 | 50.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | Stephen F. Austin -3 | 51.4 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Abilene Christian win probability
- model 39% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Stephen F. Austin -4.3 · market Stephen F. Austin -3 · difference -1.3 pts (Abilene Christian view)
- Total
- model 52.9 · market 50.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Stephen F. Austin than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Stephen F. Austin 28.6, Abilene Christian 24.3 | Stephen F. Austin 61%right winner | 14.7 | 19.9 |
| New formula | Stephen F. Austin 29.7, Abilene Christian 26.7 | Stephen F. Austin 57%right winner | 16.0 | 23.3 |
Final: Stephen F. Austin 26, Abilene Christian 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Stephen F. Austin vs Abilene Christian: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Stephen F. Austin | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.4 | 29.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 | 26.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.82 | 6.02 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.63 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.9 | 181.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.3 | 227.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 117.9 | 148.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 169.1 | 241.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.07 | 1.14 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.79 | 1.71 |
| Sacks per game | 2.64 | 1.86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.79 | 2.07 |
| Stat | Stephen F. Austin | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 43.1% | 45.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 35.8% | 40.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.8% | 11.7% |
| Havoc rate | 17.7% | 12.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.35 | 3.27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.26 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5 | 68.0 |
| Stat | Stephen F. Austin | Abilene Christian |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.19 | -0.00 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6% | 42.8% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 45.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5% | 16.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.8% | 31.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0% | 30.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.3% | 43.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3% | 40.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 54.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.7% | 64.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stephen F. Austin schedule · Abilene Christian schedule · all Week 2 projections
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