Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Arizona 28.9, Incarnate Word 27 at J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Northern Arizona wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 55.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Incarnate Word is 1-0, scoring 76 and allowing 14 points per game (+62 per game). Northern Arizona is 1-1, scoring 20.5 and allowing 31 points per game (-10.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Incarnate Word by 21 and Northern Arizona by 24 about 80% of the time.
Northern Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Incarnate Word would be favoured by 0.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Incarnate Word 28, Northern Arizona 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.1 points and the total by 10.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Incarnate Word / Northern Arizona) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northern Arizona -4.5 | 54.5 | +148 / -186 |
| DraftKings | Northern Arizona -4.5 | 54.5 | +148 / -186 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Arizona win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Arizona -2 | 55.9 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Northern Arizona -4.5 | 54.5 | 62% |
| Blended projection | Northern Arizona -4 | 55.0 | 61% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Arizona win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 62% · difference -7 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Arizona -1.9 · market Northern Arizona -4.5 · difference -2.6 pts (Northern Arizona view)
- Total
- model 55.9 · market 54.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward Incarnate Word than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Incarnate Word 27.0, Northern Arizona 28.9 | Northern Arizona 55%right winner | 8.1 | 10.1 |
| New formula | Incarnate Word 31.5, Northern Arizona 27.2 | Incarnate Word 60%wrong winner | 14.3 | 7.3 |
Final: Incarnate Word 28, Northern Arizona 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Incarnate Word vs Northern Arizona: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 31.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 31.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.27 | 6.08 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.74 | 6.81 |
| Rushing yards per game | 158.9 | 155.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 239.6 | 256.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 116.5 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.3 | 251.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 0.82 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.55 | 1.18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 1.45 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.91 | 1.73 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.9% | 41.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.0% | 13.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 15.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.7% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.01 | 3.97 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.62 | 4.39 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6 | 67.8 |
| Stat | Incarnate Word | Northern Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00 | -0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.14 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 41.1% |
| Passing success rate | 40.1% | 43.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5% | 22.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2% | 35.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0% | 34.9% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.3% | 41.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.4% | 58.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.3% | 68.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Incarnate Word schedule · Northern Arizona schedule · all Week 2 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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