Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston Christian 31.3, Incarnate Word 29.7 at Gayle and Tom Benson Stadium in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Houston Christian wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.6 points and 61 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Houston Christian is 2-1, scoring 41.7 and allowing 19.7 points per game (+22 per game). Incarnate Word is 1-1, scoring 52 and allowing 26 points per game (+26 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston Christian by 24 and Incarnate Word by 21 about 80% of the time.
Incarnate Word gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Houston Christian is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Houston Christian 23, Incarnate Word 30. Incarnate Word won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 8.6 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Houston Christian / Incarnate Word) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Incarnate Word -14 | 50.5 | +450 / -680 |
| DraftKings | Incarnate Word -14 | 50.5 | +450 / -680 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Incarnate Word win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston Christian -1.5 | 61.0 | 46% |
| Market consensus | Incarnate Word -14 | 50.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Incarnate Word -11.5 | 51.9 | 78% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Incarnate Word win probability
- model 46% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference -37 pts
- Margin
- model Houston Christian -1.6 · market Incarnate Word -14 · difference -15.6 pts (Incarnate Word view)
- Total
- model 61.0 · market 50.5 · difference +10.5
Model margin is 15.6 pts more toward Houston Christian than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Houston Christian 31.3, Incarnate Word 29.7 | Houston Christian 54%wrong winner | 8.6 | 8.0 |
| New formula | Houston Christian 20.6, Incarnate Word 38.4 | Incarnate Word 87%right winner | 10.8 | 6.1 |
Final: Houston Christian 23, Incarnate Word 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Houston Christian vs Incarnate Word: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Houston Christian | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.8 | 25.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.3 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 4.38 | 5.27 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.45 | 5.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4 | 158.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 131.0 | 239.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.9 | 116.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 185.6 | 243.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.36 | 0.55 |
| Sacks per game | 0.82 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.45 | 2.91 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 34.7% | 41.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 39.9% |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2% | 10.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 11.0% | 13.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 14.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.37 | 3.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86 | 3.62 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.4 | 75.6 |
| Stat | Houston Christian | Incarnate Word |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.00 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.20 | -0.05 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.16 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 43.9% |
| Passing success rate | 29.5% | 40.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8% | 27.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.4% | 29.2% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.9% | 40.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.0% | 36.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.2% | 41.4% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.1% | 51.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Houston Christian schedule · Incarnate Word schedule · all Week 3 projections
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