Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas State 32, Fresno State 26 at UFCU Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Texas State wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 58.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Fresno State is 4-3 against the 80th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+6.7 per game). Texas State is 4-3 against the 53rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.1 and allowing 30 points per game (+7.1 per game).
Fresno State's below-average offense (94th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense) meets Texas State's below-average defense (97th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Fresno State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Texas State's strong offense (21st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.9 points against an average defense) against Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fresno State by 16 and Texas State by 29 about 80% of the time.
Texas State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas State by about 4.2. The game is on CW.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Fresno State vs Texas State: stat comparison
| Stat | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.6#78 | 37.1#18 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.9#44 | 30.0#111 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#83 | 6.92#17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.01#94 | 5.70#77 |
| Rushing yards per game | 149.7#98 | 280.6#5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.4#89 | 239.6#54 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.7#105 | 125.4#30 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.0#80 | 286.9#136 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#21 | 0.86#64 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#18 | 0.57#119 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#72 | 1.14#125 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#74 | 1.43#47 |
| Stat | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#62 | +0.23#9 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#61 | +0.17#124 |
| Success rate | 42.4%#74 | 51.1%#5 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.4%#73 | 44.6%#115 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#53 | 15.0%#23 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2%#82 | 12.7%#89 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#34 | 13.4%#86 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#63 | 9.2%#5 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.04#77 | 4.02#79 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.06#11 | 4.18#104 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#10 | own 29#82 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#2 | own 30#101 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3#119 | 75.1#5 |
| Stat | Fresno State | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#96 | +0.20#10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#48 | +0.28#20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#70 | -0.09#11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#51 | +0.35#138 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.1%#113 | 50.6%#12 |
| Passing success rate | 44.4%#51 | 51.8%#12 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.9%#135 | 13.8%#17 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6%#31 | 48.2%#1 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.6%#68 | 33.8%#117 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1%#108 | 55.4%#7 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.7%#49 | 38.1%#61 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 56.3%#99 | 58.8%#87 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.2%#18 | 69.2%#118 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fresno State schedule · Texas State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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