Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UTSA 32.6, Texas State 30.7 at UFCU Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: UTSA wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.9 points and 63.2 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
UTSA is 1-0, scoring 45 and allowing 16 points per game (+29 per game). Texas State is 0-1, scoring 7 and allowing 59 points per game (-52 per game).
UTSA's strong offense (32nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Texas State's below-average defense (112th); that mismatch is where most of UTSA's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Texas State's strong offense (38th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.8 points against an average defense) against UTSA's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UTSA by 24 and Texas State by 21 about 80% of the time.
Texas State gets about 3.6 points for playing at home. UTSA is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CW.
Result: UTSA 31, Texas State 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.1 points and the total by 6.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UTSA / Texas State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas State -0.25 → Texas State -1.5 | 64.5 → 65.5 | +2 / -122.5 |
| DraftKings | Texas State -1.5 | 65.5 | +114 / -135 |
| Bovada | UTSA -1 → Texas State -1.5 | 64.5 → 65.5 | -110 / -110 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UTSA -2 | 63.2 | 45% |
| Market consensus | Texas State -1.5 | 65.5 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Texas State -1 | 65.0 | 53% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas State win probability
- model 45% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model UTSA -1.9 · market Texas State -1.5 · difference -3.4 pts (Texas State view)
- Total
- model 63.2 · market 65.5 · difference -2.3
Model margin is 3.4 pts more toward UTSA than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UTSA 32.6, Texas State 30.7 | UTSA 55%right winner | 3.1 | 6.2 |
| New formula | UTSA 33.8, Texas State 35.9 | Texas State 55%wrong winner | 7.0 | 12.7 |
Final: UTSA 31, Texas State 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UTSA vs Texas State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UTSA | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.5#14 | 36.5#12 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8#92 | 29.0#95 |
| Yards per play | 6.51#25 | 6.75#18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.90#80 | 5.83#71 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.7#49 | 234.8#9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.2#46 | 259.7#32 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 154.5#56 | 186.0#102 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.7#82 | 232.2#95 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.62#8 | 1.31#106 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.23#49 | 0.85#93 |
| Sacks per game | 1.77#92 | 1.85#81 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.46#36 | 2.15#93 |
| Stat | UTSA | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#27 | +0.13#20 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#57 | +0.01#67 |
| Success rate | 46.2%#26 | 46.4%#23 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8%#34 | 40.8%#60 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5%#40 | 13.7%#32 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#72 | 13.4%#106 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#36 | 14.0%#28 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#38 | 10.2%#21 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.56#16 | 4.32#32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28#110 | 4.33#114 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#20 | own 29#106 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#18 | own 32#122 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5#63 | 73.3#7 |
| Stat | UTSA | Texas State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10#26 | +0.14#13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12#34 | +0.11#37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#33 | -0.06#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#81 | +0.07#91 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.0%#42 | 45.1%#51 |
| Passing success rate | 46.4%#21 | 45.7%#24 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.7%#107 | 16.7%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.7%#16 | 38.4%#9 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.2%#28 | 32.8%#110 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.3%#65 | 46.2%#30 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%#26 | 42.4%#93 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 64.2%#51 | 62.3%#60 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.1%#89 | 66.7%#110 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTSA schedule · Texas State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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