2026 schedule

UTSA Roadrunners

7-1SOS #73

2026 season so far

UTSA is 7-1 against the 73rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.5 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.5 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings UTSA ranks 57th of 139 FBS teams overall — 36th on offense and 81st on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Florida Atlantic in Week 10. We project UTSA 41, Florida Atlantic 31 — UTSA wins 74% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
1-1 · SOS #85
Win 45-16
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 29.1
Total 62.7
DraftKings
UTSA -28.5
Total 59.5
Final UTSA by 29. UTSA beat the spread. 61 points — over the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -28.5 · O/U 59.5 · ML +1800 / -8250 · UTSA 95% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, +2 pct pts (UTSA view)
ESPN+ Alamodome
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
at
Texas State Bobcats
0-2 · SOS #58
Win 31-26
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 1.9
Total 63.3
DraftKings
TXST -1.5
Total 65.5
Final UTSA by 5. UTSA beat the spread. 57 points — under the 65.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas State -1.5 (open Texas State -0.25) · O/U 65.5 (open 64.5) · ML +2 / -122.5 · Texas State 53% no-vig · model vs market -3.4 pts, -8 pct pts (Texas State view)
CW UFCU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded gamesSpread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: hit (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: hit
at
#1 Texas Longhorns
3-0 · SOS #1
Loss 6-30
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Texas by 10.5
Total 52.3
DraftKings
TEX -29.5
Total 58.5
Final Texas by 24. UTSA beat the spread. 36 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -29.75 · O/U 58.25 (open 57.75) · ML +1800 / -5000 · Texas 95% no-vig · model vs market -19.2 pts, -20 pct pts (Texas view)
SECN+ DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
vs
Colorado State Rams
2-2 · SOS #57
Win 59-45
Week 4
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 15.4
Total 59
DraftKings
UTSA -14.5
Total 56.5
Final UTSA by 14. Colorado State beat the spread. 104 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -14.25 (open UTSA -12) · O/U 56.5 (open 57.5) · ML +432.5 / -600 · UTSA 82% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +3 pct pts (UTSA view)
ESPNU Alamodome
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): push (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
M. Anderson WR · Low catches 3.4 (avg 4.3) · 68% · 3 ✓R. Vick WR · TD threat 66% · 1 ✓O. McCown QB · High pass yds 238 (avg 186) · 64% · 303 ✓
at
Rice Owls
1-4 · SOS #66
Win 16-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 14.2
Total 58.6
DraftKings
UTSA -11.5
Total 56.5
Final UTSA by 2. Rice beat the spread. 30 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -12 (open UTSA -11.75) · O/U 56.25 (open 53.5) · ML -457.5 / +345 · Rice 22% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -4 pct pts (Rice view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 86°F, Wind 13 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHOU)
ESPN+ First Community Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
M. Anderson WR · Low catches 3.1 (avg 4) · 67% · 4 ✗O. McCown QB · High pass yds 237 (avg 216) · 55% · 148 ✗
vs
South Florida Bulls
4-2 · SOS #133
Win 31-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 6.6
Total 55.8
DraftKings
UTSA -5.5
Total 49.5
Final UTSA by 7. UTSA beat the spread. 55 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -5.5 (open UTSA -6.75) · O/U 49.5 (open 51) · ML +202.5 / -245 · UTSA 68% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, -1 pct pts (UTSA view)
Indoors (dome).
ESPN Alamodome
Pregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
D. Crowther RB · TD threat 67% · 2 ✓M. Anderson WR · Low catches 3.2 (avg 4) · 66% · 3 ✓
vs
Navy Midshipmen
2-4 · SOS #99
Win 38-34
Week 7
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 8.9
Total 55.7
DraftKings
UTSA -5.5
Total 52.5
Final UTSA by 4. Navy beat the spread. 72 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -6.25 (open UTSA -6.75) · O/U 53.5 (open 55) · ML +187.5 / -234 · UTSA 67% no-vig · model vs market +2.6 pts, +5 pct pts (UTSA view)
Indoors (dome).
ESPNU Alamodome
Pregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded gamesConference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: hit (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
at
Tulane Green Wave
3-4 · SOS #50
Win 42-19
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Tulane by 0.7
Total 51.3
DraftKings
UTSA -3
Total 52.5
Final UTSA by 23. UTSA beat the spread. 61 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -3 · O/U 52.5 · ML -145 / +122 · Tulane 43% no-vig · model vs market +3.7 pts, +9 pct pts (Tulane view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSY)
ESPNU Yulman Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Fav vs pass-poor dog, true total2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 6 misses (79% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 10-2) · Our total − book -1.5..1.5 + Away team explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
O. McCown QB · High pass yds 237 (avg 225) · 53% · 173 ✗
at
Florida Atlantic Owls
5-2 · SOS #120
Fri, Nov 6, 12:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 41-31 · 74%
Our number
UTSA by 10
Total 72
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Flagler Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
A. Peterson RB · TD threat 83%O. McCown QB · High pass yds 249 (avg 219) · 60%
vs
North Texas Mean Green
5-2 · SOS #84
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 38-36 · 57%
Our number
UTSA by 2
Total 74
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Alamodome
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
J. White RB · TD threat 83%A. Peterson RB · TD threat 72%O. McCown QB · High pass yds 237 (avg 219) · 57%
at
UAB Blazers
4-3 · SOS #94
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 36-22 · 81%
Our number
UTSA by 14
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Protective Stadium
A. Peterson RB · TD threat 77%
vs
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
4-4 · SOS #98
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 35-25 · 74%
Our number
UTSA by 10
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Alamodome
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
A. Peterson RB · TD threat 78%O. McCown QB · High pass yds 229 (avg 219) · 54%

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UTSA Roadrunners stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+2.6

57th in FBS

Adj. offense

30.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

28.2

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	33.5	39 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	26.0	91 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.19	54 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.98	92 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	189.5	46 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	223.8	68 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	194.4	115 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	217.5	92 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.50	26 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.88	64 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.13	129 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.25	31 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.17	36 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.12	109 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	46.6%	36 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	40.9%	70 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	12.2%	81 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	8.6%	9 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	10.1%	136 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.1%	43 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.18	57 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.92	82 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 33	15 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 27	28 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	66.8	64 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.21	9 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.12	63 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.11	107 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.13	96 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	52.1%	6 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	41.5%	70 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	17.7%	81 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	29.9%	93 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	31.2%	93 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	42.3%	63 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	39.5%	81 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	59.5%	84 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	57.6%	58 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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