Matchup analysis
Our model projects UTSA 35, Tulsa 25 at Alamodome in Week 13. That is a solid edge: UTSA wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 60.1 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Tulsa is 4-4 against the 98th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.8 and allowing 24.4 points per game (+5.4 per game). UTSA is 7-1 against the 73rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.5 and allowing 26 points per game (+7.5 per game).
Tulsa's below-average offense (88th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) meets UTSA's middle-of-the-pack defense (81st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Tulsa puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: UTSA's strong offense (36th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.8 points against an average defense) against Tulsa's below-average defense (94th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulsa by 13 and UTSA by 32 about 80% of the time.
UTSA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UTSA by about 7.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Tulsa vs UTSA: stat comparison
| Stat | Tulsa | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.8#63 | 33.5#39 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.4#71 | 26.0#91 |
| Yards per play | 5.74#93 | 6.19#54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.71#78 | 5.98#92 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.0#67 | 189.5#46 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.8#93 | 223.8#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 214.8#129 | 194.4#115 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 196.8#50 | 217.5#92 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.38#13 | 0.50#26 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#28 | 0.88#64 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13#65 | 1.13#129 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38#39 | 1.25#31 |
| Stat | Tulsa | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#44 | +0.17#36 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#57 | +0.12#109 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#106 | 46.6%#36 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6%#46 | 40.9%#70 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#111 | 12.2%#81 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.7%#39 | 8.6%#9 |
| Havoc rate | 10.7%#132 | 10.1%#136 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#83 | 12.1%#43 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.41#42 | 4.18#57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.24#22 | 3.92#82 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#44 | own 33#15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#65 | own 27#28 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.6#81 | 66.8#64 |
| Stat | Tulsa | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#14 | +0.21#9 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#70 | +0.12#63 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#66 | +0.11#107 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.00#50 | +0.13#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.4%#96 | 52.1%#6 |
| Passing success rate | 38.7%#102 | 41.5%#70 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.4%#26 | 17.7%#81 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.4%#128 | 29.9%#93 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.6%#106 | 31.2%#93 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.0%#124 | 42.3%#63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.4%#98 | 39.5%#81 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.8%#25 | 59.5%#84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.5%#36 | 57.6%#58 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulsa schedule · UTSA schedule · all Week 13 projections
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