Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas 31.4, UTSA 20.9 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Texas wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.5 points and 52.2 combined points.
UTSA is 2-0, scoring 38 and allowing 21 points per game (+17 per game). Texas (No. 1) is 2-0, scoring 41.5 and allowing 15 points per game (+26.5 per game).
Expect UTSA to find it hard going: Texas's elite defense (6th) outranks UTSA's strong offense (33rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.4 points against an average defense). Texas's elite offense (10th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.4 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UTSA's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd); that mismatch is where most of Texas's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UTSA by 12 and Texas by 33 about 80% of the time.
Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas by about 8.4. The game is on SECN+.
Result: UTSA 6, Texas 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.5 points and the total by 16.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UTSA / Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -29.75 | 57.75 → 58.25 | +1800 / -5000 |
| DraftKings | Texas -29.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | +1800 / -5000 |
| Bovada | Texas -30 | 58 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas -10.5 | 52.2 | 75% |
| Market consensus | Texas -30 | 58.3 | 95% |
| Blended projection | Texas -27 | 58.1 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas win probability
- model 75% · market (no-vig) 95% · difference -20 pts
- Margin
- model Texas -10.5 · market Texas -29.75 · difference -19.2 pts (Texas view)
- Total
- model 52.2 · market 58.25 · difference -6.0
Model margin is 19.2 pts more toward UTSA than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UTSA 20.9, Texas 31.4 | Texas 75%right winner | 13.5 | 16.2 |
| New formula | UTSA 17.3, Texas 41.1 | Texas 93%right winner | 0.2 | 22.4 |
Final: UTSA 6, Texas 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UTSA vs Texas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UTSA | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.0#43 | 41.5#31 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.0#70 | 15.0#43 |
| Yards per play | 6.99#38 | 5.84#85 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.38#115 | 5.47#82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.0#57 | 161.5#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 266.5#42 | 268.0#40 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 232.0#131 | 135.0#77 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.5#121 | 223.0#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#22 | 1.50#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.00#12 | 1.50#24 |
| Sacks per game | 0.50#128 | 2.00#57 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.00#5 | 1.50#65 |
| Stat | UTSA | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#64 | +0.26#10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#65 | +0.03#73 |
| Success rate | 47.5%#28 | 48.7%#21 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5%#85 | 39.6%#58 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#93 | 12.4%#79 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.8%#35 | 12.9%#102 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#117 | 15.8%#46 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5%#43 | 14.0%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.89#93 | 5.89#4 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.61#59 | 2.75#11 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#70 | own 30#91 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#25 | own 29#82 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0#71 | 73.5#18 |
| Stat | UTSA | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#38 | +0.07#67 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#79 | +0.43#7 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#92 | -0.06#44 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#48 | +0.10#93 |
| Rushing success rate | 57.7%#14 | 48.4%#49 |
| Passing success rate | 48.4%#47 | 49.3%#40 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#52 | 20.5%#105 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5%#98 | 44.8%#7 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.4%#109 | 36.6%#119 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.0%#130 | 64.5%#7 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.5%#123 | 50.0%#124 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.6%#106 | 81.5%#16 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.5%#49 | 43.1%#25 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTSA schedule · Texas schedule · all Week 3 projections
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