Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UTSA 31.2, South Florida 24.6 at Alamodome in Week 6. That is a lean: UTSA wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.6 points and 55.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
South Florida is 4-1, scoring 26.6 and allowing 14.6 points per game (+12 per game). UTSA is 4-1, scoring 31.4 and allowing 26.2 points per game (+5.2 per game).
South Florida's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.4 points against an average defense) meets UTSA's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Florida puts up. UTSA's middle-of-the-pack offense (47th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.5 points against an average defense) meets South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points UTSA puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Florida by 16 and UTSA by 29 about 80% of the time.
UTSA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UTSA by about 4.5. The game is on ESPN.
Result: South Florida 24, UTSA 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.4 points and the total by 0.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Florida / UTSA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UTSA -6.75 → UTSA -5.5 | 51 → 49.5 | +202.5 / -245 |
| DraftKings | UTSA -7 → UTSA -5.5 | 49.5 | +190 / -230 |
| Bovada | UTSA -6.5 → UTSA -5.5 | 52.5 → 49.5 | +215 / -260 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UTSA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UTSA -6.5 | 55.7 | 67% |
| Market consensus | UTSA -5.5 | 49.5 | 68% |
| Blended projection | UTSA -5.5 | 50.7 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UTSA win probability
- model 67% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model UTSA -6.6 · market UTSA -5.5 · difference +1.1 pts (UTSA view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 49.5 · difference +6.2
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward UTSA than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Florida 24.6, UTSA 31.2 | UTSA 67%right winner | 0.4 | 0.7 |
| New formula | South Florida 25.2, UTSA 30.0 | UTSA 62%right winner | 2.2 | 0.1 |
Final: South Florida 24, UTSA 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Florida vs UTSA: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Florida | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6#88 | 31.4#67 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.6#19 | 26.2#97 |
| Yards per play | 5.86#88 | 6.01#79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.17#43 | 5.73#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 173.2#66 | 176.4#63 |
| Net passing yards per game | 172.8#115 | 209.4#87 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.0#56 | 204.2#128 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.2#34 | 224.6#93 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80#68 | 0.40#25 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80#80 | 1.00#61 |
| Sacks per game | 1.60#90 | 1.20#120 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.80#80 | 0.80#15 |
| Stat | South Florida | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#81 | +0.12#59 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#67 | +0.07#88 |
| Success rate | 45.3%#45 | 44.3%#57 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.9%#74 | 41.4%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#98 | 11.7%#99 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#55 | 8.1%#6 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#68 | 10.7%#129 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.7%#104 | 13.7%#84 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.70#29 | 3.74#101 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.76#68 | 3.90#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#54 | own 33#27 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#45 | own 28#55 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#120 | 64.2#87 |
| Stat | South Florida | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#56 | +0.16#31 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00#100 | +0.08#73 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#34 | +0.10#102 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12#96 | +0.05#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.3%#28 | 50.0%#16 |
| Passing success rate | 46.5%#40 | 38.7%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.4%#105 | 19.0%#100 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.4%#56 | 25.5%#114 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.0%#60 | 33.6%#110 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.5%#46 | 32.8%#123 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.8%#41 | 38.8%#80 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 69.2%#42 | 47.1%#125 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.6%#14 | 57.9%#74 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Florida schedule · UTSA schedule · all Week 6 projections
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