2026 schedule
South Florida Bulls
2026 season so far
South Florida is 5-2 against the 133rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 15.1 points per game (+11.5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings South Florida ranks 72nd of 139 FBS teams overall — 90th on offense and 52nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs UAB in Week 9. We project South Florida 31, UAB 17 — South Florida wins 83% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Florida International Panthers
0-1 · SOS #137
Win 19-9
Week 1
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 15.6
Total 61
DraftKings
USF -14.5
Total 53.5
Final South Florida by 10. Florida International beat the spread. 28 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: South Florida -14.5 (open South Florida -12.5) · O/U 53.25 (open 54.5) · ML +405 / -555 · South Florida 81% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +4 pct pts (South Florida view)
ESPN+ Raymond James Stadium - at
Army Black Knights
1-1 · SOS #107
Win 28-24
Week 2
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 3.3
Total 49.9
DraftKings
ARMY -3
Total 45.5
Final South Florida by 4. South Florida beat the spread. 52 points — over the 45.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Army -3 (open Army -2.5) · O/U 45.5 (open 51) · ML +145 / -170.5 · Army 61% no-vig · model vs market -6.3 pts, -19 pct pts (Army view)
CBSSN Michie Stadium - vs
Delaware State Hornets
2-2 · SOS #124
Win 59-17
Week 3
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 40.3
Total 43.3
DraftKings
USF -37.5
Total 59.5
Final South Florida by 42. South Florida beat the spread. 76 points — over the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: South Florida -37.5 (open South Florida -36.5) · O/U 60 (open 61.25) · model vs market +2.8 pts (South Florida view)
ESPN+ Raymond James Stadium - at
Bowling Green Falcons
0-4 · SOS #92
Win 14-6
Week 4
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 14.5
Total 53.7
DraftKings
USF -17.5
Total 48.5
Final South Florida by 8. Bowling Green beat the spread. 20 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Florida -17.75 (open South Florida -16.5) · O/U 48.75 (open 50.5) · ML -1025 / +637.5 · Bowling Green 13% no-vig · model vs market +3.3 pts, +4 pct pts (Bowling Green view)
ESPN+ Doyt L. Perry Stadium - vs
Temple Owls
2-3 · SOS #87
Loss 13-17
Week 5
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 10.9
Total 55.9
DraftKings
USF -5.5
Total 50.5
Final Temple by 4. Temple beat the spread. 30 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Florida -5.5 (open South Florida -6) · O/U 49.5 (open 52) · ML +180 / -219 · South Florida 66% no-vig · model vs market +5.4 pts, +11 pct pts (South Florida view)
ESPNU Raymond James Stadium - at
UTSA Roadrunners
5-1 · SOS #73
Loss 24-31
Week 6
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 6.6
Total 55.8
DraftKings
UTSA -5.5
Total 49.5
Final UTSA by 7. UTSA beat the spread. 55 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -5.5 (open UTSA -6.75) · O/U 49.5 (open 51) · ML +202.5 / -245 · UTSA 68% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, -1 pct pts (UTSA view)
ESPN Alamodome - vs
Kent State Golden Flashes
2-5 · SOS #68
Win 29-2
Week 7
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 21
Total 50.8
DraftKings
USF -20.5
Total 46.5
Final South Florida by 27. South Florida beat the spread. 31 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Florida -20.5 (open South Florida -19.25) · O/U 46 (open 48) · ML +775 / -1325 · South Florida 89% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +3 pct pts (South Florida view)
ESPN+ Raymond James Stadium - vs
UAB Blazers
4-3 · SOS #94
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 31-17 · 83%
Our number
South Florida by 14
Total 48
DraftKings
USF -8.5
Total 42.5
We're 5.5 points higher on South Florida than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Florida -7.75 · O/U 42.5 · ML +250 / -312.5 · South Florida 73% no-vig · model vs market +6.3 pts, +11 pct pts (South Florida view)
ESPNU Raymond James Stadium - at
East Carolina Pirates
3-4 · SOS #95
Sat, Nov 7, 12:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 24-24 · 51%
Our number
dead even
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium - vs
Memphis Tigers
6-2 · SOS #104
Fri, Nov 13, 1:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 27-26 · 53%
Our number
South Florida by 1
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Raymond James Stadium - at
Florida Atlantic Owls
5-2 · SOS #120
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 34-27 · 67%
Our number
South Florida by 7
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Flagler Credit Union Stadium - vs
Tulane Green Wave
3-4 · SOS #50
Fri, Nov 27 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 24-18 · 66%
Our number
South Florida by 6
Total 42
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Raymond James Stadium
Times shown in your local time
South Florida Bulls stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-0.3
71st in FBS
Adj. offense
24.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
24.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 26.6 | 84 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 15.1 | 10 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.48 | 113 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.19 | 37 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 155.7 | 91 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 167.0 | 125 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 155.0 | 69 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 174.4 | 22 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.57 | 34 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | 114 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.86 | 85 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.86 | 71 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.05 | 90 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.02 | 58 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.3% | 52 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.9% | 78 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.7% | 121 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.2% | 59 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.2% | 90 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.1% | 95 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.45 | 39 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.34 | 26 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 32 | 24 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 26 | 17 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 58.9 | 128 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | 70 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.01 | 102 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.01 | 52 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.04 | 67 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 49.0% | 20 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.4% | 50 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.1% | 116 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.3% | 83 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.3% | 97 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 40.3% | 77 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.5% | 69 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65.6% | 49 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 37.6% | 3 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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