Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Florida 31, UAB 17 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: South Florida wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.7 points and 48.2 combined points.
UAB is 4-3 against the 94th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-1.3 per game). South Florida is 5-2 against the 133rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 15.1 points per game (+11.5 per game).
Expect UAB to find it hard going: South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) outranks UAB's struggling offense (119th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.7 points against an average defense). South Florida's below-average offense (90th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UAB's struggling defense (120th); that mismatch is where most of South Florida's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UAB by 8 and South Florida by 37 about 80% of the time.
South Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Florida by about 12.6. The game is on ESPNU.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UAB / South Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Florida -7.75 | 42.5 | +250 / -312.5 |
| FanDuel | South Florida -7.5 | 42.5 | +255 / -320 |
| BetMGM | South Florida -8.5 | 42.5 | +250 / -300 |
| DraftKings | South Florida -8.5 | 42.5 | +245 / -305 |
| theScore Bet | South Florida -8.5 | 42.5 | +270 / -340 |
| Pinnacle | South Florida -7.5 | 42.5 | +246 / -303 |
| Bovada | South Florida -8 | 42.5 | +250 / -300 |
| BetRivers | South Florida -7.5 | 42.5 | +250 / -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | South Florida -7.5 | 42.5 | +250 / -325 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Florida -14.5 | 48.2 | 83% |
| Market consensus | South Florida -8 | 42.5 | 73% |
| Blended projection | South Florida -9 | 44.2 | 73% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Florida win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 73% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model South Florida -14.7 · market South Florida -7.75 · difference +7.0 pts (South Florida view)
- Total
- model 48.2 · market 42.5 · difference +5.7
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies South Florida 74%.
Model margin is 7.0 pts more toward South Florida than the market.
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UAB vs South Florida: stat comparison
| Stat | UAB | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.3#103 | 26.6#84 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6#73 | 15.1#10 |
| Yards per play | 5.39#119 | 5.48#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28#46 | 5.19#37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.7#50 | 155.7#91 |
| Net passing yards per game | 168.3#124 | 167.0#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.3#123 | 155.0#69 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 132.1#1 | 174.4#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#52 | 0.57#34 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#79 | 0.57#114 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#63 | 1.86#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.71#120 | 1.86#71 |
| Stat | UAB | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.07#79 | +0.05#90 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#60 | +0.02#58 |
| Success rate | 42.4%#75 | 44.3%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#95 | 41.9%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#118 | 10.7%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.9%#20 | 11.2%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#105 | 13.2%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.0%#110 | 14.1%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53#111 | 4.45#39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.98#87 | 3.34#26 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#55 | own 32#24 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#90 | own 26#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9#70 | 58.9#128 |
| Stat | UAB | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#28 | +0.08#70 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04#117 | +0.01#102 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#82 | -0.01#52 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#34 | +0.04#67 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.2%#49 | 49.0%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 36.1%#119 | 44.4%#50 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.2%#75 | 20.1%#116 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.9%#44 | 30.3%#83 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.6%#46 | 31.3%#97 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2%#45 | 40.3%#77 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.4%#104 | 38.5%#69 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 41.4%#134 | 65.6%#49 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.6%#124 | 37.6%#3 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UAB schedule · South Florida schedule · all Week 9 projections
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