Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Florida 26.6, Army 23.3 at Michie Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: South Florida wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 49.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
South Florida is 1-0, scoring 19 and allowing 9 points per game (+10 per game). Army is 1-0, scoring 59 and allowing 3 points per game (+56 per game).
Expect South Florida to find it hard going: Army's middle-of-the-pack defense (56th) outranks South Florida's below-average offense (89th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense). Army's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th); that mismatch is where most of Army's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Florida by 26 and Army by 19 about 80% of the time.
Army gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: South Florida 28, Army 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.7 points and the total by 2.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 2:34 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Florida / Army) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Army -2.5 → Army -3 | 51 → 45.5 | +145 / -170.5 |
| Bovada | Army -3.5 → Army -3 | 49.5 → 45.5 | +150 / -175 |
| DraftKings | Army -1.5 → Army -3 | 52.5 → 45.5 | +140 / -166 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Army win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Florida -3.5 | 49.9 | 41% |
| Market consensus | Army -3 | 45.5 | 61% |
| Blended projection | Army -2 | 46.9 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Army win probability
- model 41% · market (no-vig) 61% · difference -19 pts
- Margin
- model South Florida -3.3 · market Army -3 · difference -6.3 pts (Army view)
- Total
- model 49.9 · market 45.5 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 6.3 pts more toward South Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Florida 26.6, Army 23.3 | South Florida 59%right winner | 0.7 | 2.1 |
| New formula | South Florida 19.9, Army 31.5 | Army 76%wrong winner | 15.6 | 0.6 |
Final: South Florida 28, Army 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Florida vs Army: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | South Florida | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 40.5#5 | 23.8#94 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.4#53 | 21.6#39 |
| Yards per play | 7.20#6 | 5.11#124 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.67#57 | 5.81#70 |
| Rushing yards per game | 222.4#13 | 252.5#4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 279.3#17 | 83.9#136 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 162.3#71 | 158.2#62 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 261.9#127 | 191.6#32 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#107 | 0.85#37 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.62#11 | 1.08#67 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#36 | 1.08#130 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.62#50 | 0.38#1 |
| Stat | South Florida | Army |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15#17 | +0.04#57 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#30 | +0.05#92 |
| Success rate | 46.4%#24 | 41.7%#81 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2%#19 | 44.4%#105 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.6%#18 | 7.7%#136 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.6%#50 | 11.7%#52 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#37 | 9.6%#129 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7%#30 | 7.8%#1 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.40#26 | 4.03#66 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.54#35 | 3.87#69 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#77 | own 30#47 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#74 | own 31#94 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.7#31 | 65.8#73 |
| Stat | South Florida | Army |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#34 | +0.02#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#10 | +0.17#20 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#60 | +0.03#88 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#24 | +0.07#90 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.2%#31 | 42.6%#80 |
| Passing success rate | 45.5%#25 | 36.7%#112 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.0%#21 | 12.8%#3 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.1%#76 | 28.9%#83 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#26 | 29.6%#73 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.1%#18 | 43.4%#46 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4%#69 | 46.0%#122 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.1%#21 | 65.8%#42 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.9%#18 | 60.0%#70 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Florida schedule · Army schedule · all Week 2 projections
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