Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Florida 41.8, Delaware State 1.5 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: South Florida wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.2 points and 43.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Delaware State is 2-1, scoring 25.7 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+5 per game). South Florida is 2-0, scoring 23.5 and allowing 16.5 points per game (+7 per game).
Delaware State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why South Florida's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Florida by 18 and South Florida by 63 about 80% of the time.
South Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Florida by about 38.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Delaware State 17, South Florida 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.8 points and the total by 32.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Delaware State / South Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Florida -36.5 → South Florida -37.5 | 61.25 → 60 | — / — |
| DraftKings | South Florida -36.5 → South Florida -37.5 | 61.5 → 59.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | South Florida -36.5 → South Florida -37.5 | 61 → 60.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Florida -40 | 43.3 | 100% |
| Market consensus | South Florida -37.5 | 60.0 | 99% |
| Blended projection | South Florida -38 | 59.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Florida win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model South Florida -40.2 · market South Florida -37.5 · difference +2.7 pts (South Florida view)
- Total
- model 43.3 · market 60 · difference -16.7
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward South Florida than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Delaware State 1.5, South Florida 41.8 | South Florida 100%right winner | 1.8 | 32.7 |
| New formula | Delaware State 12.2, South Florida 40.2 | South Florida 96%right winner | 14.0 | 23.6 |
Final: Delaware State 17, South Florida 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Delaware State vs South Florida: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Delaware State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 23.5#105 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.7 | 16.5#50 |
| Yards per play | 6.53 | 5.20#118 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.17 | 5.52#87 |
| Rushing yards per game | 225.3 | 121.0#118 |
| Net passing yards per game | 218.7 | 167.5#113 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.3 | 152.0#91 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.3 | 223.5#89 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.67 | 0.00#21 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.50#35 |
| Sacks per game | 3.67 | 1.00#114 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 0.50#24 |
| Stat | Delaware State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.10#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04 | +0.06#86 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 47.7%#25 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.6% | 44.1%#106 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 9.0%#123 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 11.8%#80 |
| Havoc rate | 17.0% | 11.0%#121 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.0% | 14.4%#99 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.01 | 4.40#57 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.80 | 4.75#118 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 33#46 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 25#24 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 55.5#120 |
| Stat | Delaware State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15 | -0.04#112 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.17 | +0.29#24 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.00#72 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.12#96 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5% | 45.2%#68 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1% | 51.0%#35 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.4% | 22.6%#120 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.5% | 32.4%#60 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 25.6%#40 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.5% | 45.8%#57 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.0% | 35.7%#64 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 15.6% | 40.0%#131 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 12.2% | 50.0%#41 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware State schedule · South Florida schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.