Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Florida 24, East Carolina 24 at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium in Week 10. That is a genuine toss-up: South Florida wins about 51% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.4 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
South Florida is 5-2 against the 133rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 15.1 points per game (+11.5 per game). East Carolina is 3-4 against the 95th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-1.3 per game).
Expect South Florida to find it hard going: East Carolina's middle-of-the-pack defense (74th) outranks South Florida's below-average offense (90th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense). South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) should limit East Carolina's below-average offense (93rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Florida by 23 and East Carolina by 22 about 80% of the time.
East Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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South Florida vs East Carolina: stat comparison
| Stat | South Florida | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6#84 | 25.0#94 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.1#10 | 26.3#94 |
| Yards per play | 5.48#113 | 5.50#111 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.19#37 | 5.12#34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.7#91 | 160.6#83 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.0#125 | 202.7#94 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.0#69 | 159.4#78 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.4#22 | 202.1#58 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#34 | 1.14#110 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#114 | 0.86#81 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#85 | 2.57#33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#71 | 2.29#104 |
| Stat | South Florida | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#90 | +0.01#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#58 | -0.07#20 |
| Success rate | 44.3%#52 | 38.6%#122 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#78 | 36.1%#22 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#121 | 12.3%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#59 | 13.1%#102 |
| Havoc rate | 13.2%#90 | 16.3%#20 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#95 | 13.2%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.45#39 | 3.41#119 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.34#26 | 3.89#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#24 | own 30#65 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#17 | own 30#98 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.9#128 | 66.0#69 |
| Stat | South Florida | East Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#70 | +0.00#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#102 | +0.02#98 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#52 | -0.07#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#67 | -0.07#30 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#20 | 37.7%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 44.4%#50 | 37.6%#112 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1%#116 | 17.7%#82 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3%#83 | 25.9%#120 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#97 | 30.4%#76 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.3%#77 | 33.7%#122 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#69 | 35.2%#36 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#49 | 44.8%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.6%#3 | 56.7%#53 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Florida schedule · East Carolina schedule · all Week 10 projections
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