Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Florida 24, Tulane 18 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 13. That is a lean: South Florida wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.5 points and 41.8 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Tulane is 3-4 against the 31st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 24.6 points per game (-4.3 per game). South Florida is 5-2 against the 124th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 15.1 points per game (+11.5 per game).
South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) should limit Tulane's below-average offense (112th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense). Expect South Florida to find it hard going: Tulane's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) outranks South Florida's below-average offense (90th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tulane by 16 and South Florida by 29 about 80% of the time.
South Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Florida by about 4.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Tulane vs South Florida: stat comparison
| Stat | Tulane | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3#120 | 26.6#84 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.6#74 | 15.1#10 |
| Yards per play | 5.87#84 | 5.48#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.21#111 | 5.19#37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.0#81 | 155.7#91 |
| Net passing yards per game | 184.6#111 | 167.0#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 223.3#132 | 155.0#69 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.0#76 | 174.4#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86#68 | 0.57#34 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#82 | 0.57#114 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#87 | 1.86#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#112 | 1.86#71 |
| Stat | Tulane | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#110 | +0.05#90 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#100 | +0.02#58 |
| Success rate | 32.5%#137 | 44.3%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3%#97 | 41.9%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#96 | 10.7%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#90 | 11.2%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#106 | 13.2%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.9%#125 | 14.1%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.97#131 | 4.45#39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.36#27 | 3.34#26 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#119 | own 32#24 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#80 | own 26#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#126 | 58.9#128 |
| Stat | Tulane | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#68 | +0.08#70 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.05#122 | +0.01#102 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13#119 | -0.01#52 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#68 | +0.04#67 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.5%#138 | 49.0%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 33.5%#132 | 44.4%#50 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.8%#111 | 20.1%#116 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.9%#130 | 30.3%#83 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#113 | 31.3%#97 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.8%#95 | 40.3%#77 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.0%#136 | 38.5%#69 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.7%#130 | 65.6%#49 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 53.1%#40 | 37.6%#3 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tulane schedule · South Florida schedule · all Week 13 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.