Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Florida 38.3, Florida International 22.7 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: South Florida wins about 85% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.6 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Florida International has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. South Florida has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) should limit Florida International's struggling offense (126th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.1 points against an average defense). South Florida's below-average offense (90th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) meets Florida International's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Florida puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida International by 7 and South Florida by 38 about 80% of the time.
South Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Florida by about 13.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Florida International 9, South Florida 19. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.6 points and the total by 32.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida International / South Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Florida -12.5 → South Florida -14.5 | 54.5 → 53.25 | +405 / -555 |
| Bovada | South Florida -12.5 → South Florida -14.5 | 54.5 → 53 | +340 / -460 |
| DraftKings | South Florida -12.5 → South Florida -14.5 | 53.5 | +470 / -650 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Florida -15.5 | 60.9 | 85% |
| Market consensus | South Florida -14.5 | 53.3 | 81% |
| Blended projection | South Florida -15 | 54.2 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Florida win probability
- model 85% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model South Florida -15.6 · market South Florida -14.5 · difference +1.1 pts (South Florida view)
- Total
- model 60.9 · market 53.25 · difference +7.6
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward South Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida International 22.7, South Florida 38.3 | South Florida 85%right winner | 5.6 | 32.9 |
| New formula | Florida International 20.0, South Florida 37.4 | South Florida 84%right winner | 7.4 | 29.4 |
Final: Florida International 9, South Florida 19. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida International vs South Florida: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Florida International | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.5#61 | 40.5#5 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.0#105 | 23.4#53 |
| Yards per play | 5.62#90 | 7.20#6 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.23#109 | 5.67#57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 187.8#41 | 222.4#13 |
| Net passing yards per game | 202.7#94 | 279.3#17 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.8#88 | 162.3#71 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 250.8#121 | 261.9#127 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#108 | 1.31#107 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31#36 | 1.62#11 |
| Sacks per game | 2.31#42 | 2.38#36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#61 | 1.62#50 |
| Stat | Florida International | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#101 | +0.15#17 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#52 | -0.07#30 |
| Success rate | 39.9%#104 | 46.4%#24 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6%#69 | 37.2%#19 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#97 | 14.6%#18 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0%#117 | 11.6%#50 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6%#66 | 13.7%#37 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3%#101 | 10.7%#30 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79#89 | 4.40#26 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.88#70 | 3.54#35 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#39 | own 30#77 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#126 | own 30#74 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.5#34 | 69.7#31 |
| Stat | Florida International | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.02#72 | +0.08#34 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06#104 | +0.22#10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#78 | -0.01#60 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#49 | -0.12#24 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.0%#108 | 47.2%#31 |
| Passing success rate | 42.0%#58 | 45.5%#25 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.6%#127 | 15.0%#21 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#98 | 30.1%#76 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#55 | 27.1%#26 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.3%#109 | 48.1%#18 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0%#61 | 40.4%#69 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.5%#95 | 71.1%#21 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.2%#75 | 50.9%#18 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida International schedule · South Florida schedule · all Week 1 projections
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