Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Florida 27, Memphis 26 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: South Florida wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.1 points and 53.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Memphis is 6-2 against the 104th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 23.8 points per game (+12.3 per game). South Florida is 5-2 against the 124th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 15.1 points per game (+11.5 per game).
Memphis's middle-of-the-pack offense (49th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense) meets South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Memphis puts up. South Florida's below-average offense (90th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) meets Memphis's middle-of-the-pack defense (80th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points South Florida puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Memphis by 21 and South Florida by 24 about 80% of the time.
South Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Memphis would be favoured by 1. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Memphis vs South Florida: stat comparison
| Stat | Memphis | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.1#23 | 26.6#84 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.8#66 | 15.1#10 |
| Yards per play | 7.44#6 | 5.48#113 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.16#105 | 5.19#37 |
| Rushing yards per game | 240.9#9 | 155.7#91 |
| Net passing yards per game | 280.6#18 | 167.0#125 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 185.6#107 | 155.0#69 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.1#70 | 174.4#22 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#99 | 0.57#34 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#30 | 0.57#114 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#45 | 1.86#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#82 | 1.86#71 |
| Stat | Memphis | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.18#30 | +0.05#90 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#66 | +0.02#58 |
| Success rate | 48.6%#21 | 44.3%#52 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.1%#32 | 41.9%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4%#17 | 10.7%#121 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#126 | 11.2%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 14.0%#67 | 13.2%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#47 | 14.1%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.44#41 | 4.45#39 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.46#38 | 3.34#26 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#116 | own 32#24 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#46 | own 26#17 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.1#22 | 58.9#128 |
| Stat | Memphis | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.15#31 | +0.08#70 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.22#30 | +0.01#102 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#110 | -0.01#52 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#35 | +0.04#67 |
| Rushing success rate | 50.7%#11 | 49.0%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 47.7%#28 | 44.4%#50 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.9%#12 | 20.1%#116 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2%#36 | 30.3%#83 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.9%#14 | 31.3%#97 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#50 | 40.3%#77 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.7%#18 | 38.5%#69 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.0%#106 | 65.6%#49 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.3%#57 | 37.6%#3 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Memphis schedule · South Florida schedule · all Week 11 projections
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