Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Florida 34.1, Bowling Green 19.6 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: South Florida wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.5 points and 53.7 combined points.
South Florida is 3-0, scoring 35.3 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+18.6 per game). Bowling Green is 0-3, scoring 9 and allowing 43.7 points per game (-34.7 per game).
South Florida's middle-of-the-pack offense (48th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Bowling Green's struggling defense (125th); that mismatch is where most of South Florida's projected points come from. Expect Bowling Green to find it hard going: South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (72nd) outranks Bowling Green's struggling offense (137th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Florida by 37 and Bowling Green by 8 about 80% of the time.
Bowling Green gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.5 points and the total by 33.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Florida / Bowling Green) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Florida -16.5 → South Florida -17.75 | 50.5 → 48.75 | -1025 / +637.5 |
| DraftKings | South Florida -15.5 → South Florida -17.5 | 51.5 → 48.5 | -1050 / +675 |
| Bovada | South Florida -17.5 → South Florida -18 | 49.5 → 49 | -1000 / +600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bowling Green win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Florida -14.5 | 53.7 | 17% |
| Market consensus | South Florida -17.5 | 48.8 | 13% |
| Blended projection | South Florida -17.5 | 49.9 | 12% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bowling Green win probability
- model 17% · market (no-vig) 13% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model South Florida -14.5 · market South Florida -17.75 · difference +3.3 pts (Bowling Green view)
- Total
- model 53.7 · market 48.75 · difference +5.0
Model margin is 3.3 pts more toward Bowling Green than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Florida 34.1, Bowling Green 19.6 | South Florida 83%right winner | 6.5 | 33.7 |
| New formula | South Florida 34.9, Bowling Green 18.6 | South Florida 86%right winner | 8.3 | 33.5 |
Final: South Florida 14, Bowling Green 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Florida vs Bowling Green: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Florida | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.3#53 | 9.0#138 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.7#38 | 43.7#136 |
| Yards per play | 6.71#47 | 4.72#130 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.69#89 | 8.12#137 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.0#65 | 91.7#138 |
| Net passing yards per game | 216.0#84 | 161.7#120 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.3#67 | 290.7#138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.7#97 | 207.3#74 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#30 | 1.00#88 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#37 | 0.67#100 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#115 | 1.00#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#21 | 0.33#8 |
| Stat | South Florida | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#17 | -0.10#131 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#100 | +0.26#134 |
| Success rate | 52.5%#7 | 33.9%#132 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#113 | 51.5%#136 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#83 | 10.4%#115 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4%#69 | 17.6%#136 |
| Havoc rate | 13.5%#79 | 8.1%#137 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#48 | 14.8%#104 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.29#7 | 2.50#137 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.34#102 | 4.24#96 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#30 | own 27#119 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#12 | own 30#91 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0#117 | 53.7#136 |
| Stat | South Florida | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#21 | -0.32#138 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.27#28 | +0.14#60 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#48 | +0.26#135 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22#114 | +0.27#123 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.9%#18 | 26.2%#137 |
| Passing success rate | 53.8%#18 | 42.6%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.5%#95 | 23.9%#130 |
| Passing-down success rate | 40.5%#13 | 15.8%#137 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#68 | 27.6%#56 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#30 | 30.6%#129 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.5%#44 | 38.5%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 63.6%#79 | 66.7%#63 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.3%#46 | 58.3%#66 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Florida schedule · Bowling Green schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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