Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Florida 35.9, Kent State 14.9 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 7. That is a heavy edge: South Florida wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Kent State is 2-4, scoring 13.7 and allowing 32.5 points per game (-18.8 per game). South Florida is 4-2, scoring 26.2 and allowing 17.3 points per game (+8.9 per game).
South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd) should limit Kent State's struggling offense (133rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: South Florida's middle-of-the-pack offense (79th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.7 points against an average defense) against Kent State's struggling defense (132nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kent State by 2 and South Florida by 44 about 80% of the time.
South Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Florida by about 18.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Kent State 2, South Florida 29. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 19.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kent State / South Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Florida -19.25 → South Florida -20.5 | 48 → 46 | +775 / -1325 |
| DraftKings | South Florida -18.5 → South Florida -20.5 | 49.5 → 46.5 | +850 / -1450 |
| Bovada | South Florida -20 → South Florida -20.5 | 46.5 → 45.5 | +700 / -1200 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Florida -21 | 50.7 | 92% |
| Market consensus | South Florida -20.5 | 46.0 | 89% |
| Blended projection | South Florida -20.5 | 47.4 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Florida win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model South Florida -21 · market South Florida -20.5 · difference +0.5 pts (South Florida view)
- Total
- model 50.7 · market 46 · difference +4.7
Model margin is 0.5 pts more toward South Florida than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kent State 14.9, South Florida 35.9 | South Florida 92%right winner | 6.0 | 19.7 |
| New formula | Kent State 13.9, South Florida 36.1 | South Florida 93%right winner | 4.8 | 19.1 |
Final: Kent State 2, South Florida 29. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kent State vs South Florida: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kent State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.7#137 | 26.2#89 |
| Points allowed per game | 32.5#123 | 17.3#25 |
| Yards per play | 4.73#136 | 5.70#95 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.62#124 | 5.43#59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 126.7#122 | 163.8#74 |
| Net passing yards per game | 165.0#123 | 173.5#117 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.5#91 | 164.5#87 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.0#106 | 178.3#32 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.17#103 | 0.67#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#76 | 0.67#99 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83#81 | 1.67#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#72 | 1.50#54 |
| Stat | Kent State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.04#123 | +0.10#70 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#78 | +0.05#80 |
| Success rate | 34.6%#133 | 45.5%#47 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.6%#109 | 42.4%#90 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.3%#136 | 11.6%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8%#75 | 11.2%#56 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1%#107 | 13.1%#90 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4%#102 | 13.2%#70 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.81#134 | 4.82#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.85#129 | 3.73#65 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#92 | own 31#57 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#105 | own 26#31 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.7#108 | 59.2#123 |
| Stat | Kent State | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#132 | +0.11#53 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#97 | +0.06#84 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#84 | +0.01#62 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#68 | +0.08#85 |
| Rushing success rate | 30.8%#138 | 48.3%#36 |
| Passing success rate | 38.6%#105 | 45.3%#41 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#112 | 19.5%#105 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1%#98 | 33.2%#56 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.7%#44 | 30.6%#87 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.3%#106 | 42.4%#63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#75 | 38.8%#79 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#91 | 69.2%#39 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 73.9%#123 | 44.6%#14 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kent State schedule · South Florida schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.