2026 schedule

Kent State Golden Flashes

3-5SOS #68

2026 season so far

Kent State is 3-5 against the 68th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-15.6 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Kent State ranks 133rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 136th on offense and 129th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Sacramento State in Week 9. We project Kent State 27, Sacramento State 22 — Kent State wins 62% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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at
South Carolina Gamecocks
1-0 · SOS #23
Loss 0-57
Week 1
Our number· pregame
South Carolina by 13.8
Total 53.6
DraftKings
SC -35.5
Total 52.5
Final South Carolina by 57. South Carolina beat the spread. 57 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Carolina -36 (open South Carolina -34) · O/U 53 (open 52.5) · ML -48000 / -75000 · South Carolina 74% no-vig · model vs market -22.2 pts, +8 pct pts (South Carolina view)
SEC Network Williams-Brice Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Wofford Terriers
2-1 · SOS #120
Win 36-15
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Kent State by 21.3
Total 46.3
DraftKings
KENT -10
Total 45.5
Final Kent State by 21. Kent State beat the spread. 51 points — over the 45.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kent State -10.5 (open Kent State -11.25) · O/U 46.25 (open 47.25) · ML +350 / -455 · Kent State 79% no-vig · model vs market +10.8 pts, +13 pct pts (Kent State view)
ESPN+ Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
at
#6 Ohio State Buckeyes
2-1 · SOS #19
Loss 3-59
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 16.4
Total 53.6
DraftKings
OSU -52.5
Total 58.5
Final Ohio State by 56. Ohio State beat the spread. 62 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -52.25 (open Ohio State -52.75) · O/U 58.75 (open 57.5) · model vs market -35.8 pts (Ohio State view)
Fox Ohio Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Ball State Cardinals
1-3 · SOS #85
Win 26-13
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Kent State by 1.5
Total 60.5
DraftKings
KENT -2.5
Total 51.5
Final Kent State by 13. Kent State beat the spread. 39 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kent State -2.5 (open Kent State -3.75) · O/U 51.5 (open 50.5) · ML +127 / -150 · Kent State 58% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Kent State view)
ESPN+ Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 9-5Short road dog · better YPP: missed Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: missed
T. Horton RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 69) · 69% · 3 ✓
vs
Ohio Bobcats
3-2 · SOS #135
Loss 10-13
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 11.7
Total 57.1
DraftKings
OHIO -3.5
Total 50.5
Final Ohio by 3. Kent State beat the spread. 23 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio -3.5 (open Ohio -5.5) · O/U 50.75 (open 51.5) · ML -192.5 / +160 · Kent State 37% no-vig · model vs market -8.2 pts, -15 pct pts (Kent State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 6 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAKR)
ESPN+ Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
at
Western Michigan Broncos
4-2 · SOS #91
Loss 7-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 19.8
Total 48
DraftKings
WMU -13.5
Total 43.5
Final Western Michigan by 31. Western Michigan beat the spread. 45 points — over the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Michigan -13.75 · O/U 43.5 (open 44.5) · ML +437.5 / -612.5 · Western Michigan 82% no-vig · model vs market +6.0 pts, +8 pct pts (Western Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 7 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAZO)
ESPN+ Waldo Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. DeShields QB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 37) · 78% · -6 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. King RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 33) · 78% · 36 ✗Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. White RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 25) · 78% · 28 ✗
at
South Florida Bulls
5-2 · SOS #133
Loss 2-29
Week 7
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 21
Total 50.8
DraftKings
USF -20.5
Total 46.5
Final South Florida by 27. South Florida beat the spread. 31 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Florida -20.5 (open South Florida -19.25) · O/U 46 (open 48) · ML +775 / -1325 · South Florida 89% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +3 pct pts (South Florida view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTPA)
ESPN+ Raymond James Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14 Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: missed (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank
Elite 114-37 (typical 60%) · D. DeShields QB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 30) · 75% · 12 ✓Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · M. King RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 34) · 77% · did not playElite 101-30 (typical 62%) · B. White RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 26) · 77% · 37 ✗
vs
Akron Zips
1-7 · SOS #109
Win 35-20
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Kent State by 0.6
Total 50.4
DraftKings
KENT -3
Total 48.5
Final Kent State by 15. Kent State beat the spread. 55 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kent State -3 · O/U 47.5 · ML +124 / -148 · Kent State 57% no-vig · model vs market -2.4 pts, -6 pct pts (Kent State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAKR)
ESPN+ Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded gamesFavorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: missed (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: missed (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: missed (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
B. Roggow QB · High pass yds 178 (avg 153) · 60% · 275 ✓D. DeShields QB · High pass yds 192 (avg 164) · 59% · 294 ✓
at
Sacramento State Hornets
1-7 · SOS #136
Sat, Oct 31, 2:30 AM
Week 9
Proj 27-22 · 62%
Our number
Kent State by 5
Total 49
DraftKings
KENT -10
Total 46.5
We're 5 points higher on Sacramento State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kent State -10 · O/U 46.5 · ML -379.5 / +297.5 · Sacramento State 24% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +14 pct pts (Sacramento State view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph SSW, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN2 Hornet Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Bounce-back dog vs weak-offense fav underStudy · Moderate Under: Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game: Record 273 hits, 188 misses (59% hit rate) over 461 graded games (n=461) · Favorite implied 24–31, weak favorite offense, underdog missed the spread last game
Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded games (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · I. Ene RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 38) · 77%D. DeShields QB · High pass yds 199 (avg 180) · 56%
at
Bowling Green Falcons
2-6 · SOS #92
Wed, Nov 11, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 19-25 · 34%
Our number
Bowling Green by 6
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Doyt L. Perry Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
D. DeShields QB · High pass yds 189 (avg 180) · 52%
vs
Miami (OH) RedHawks
5-3 · SOS #117
Wed, Nov 18, 12:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 20-29 · 27%
Our number
Miami (OH) by 9
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
at
Eastern Michigan Eagles
4-5 · SOS #131
Wed, Nov 25, 12:00 AM
Week 13
Proj 20-30 · 26%
Our number
Eastern Michigan by 10
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Rynearson Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games

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Kent State Golden Flashes stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-18.9

132nd in FBS

Adj. offense

16.0

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

34.9

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	14.9	138 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	30.5	115 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	4.97	133 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.35	119 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	116.6	131 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	189.9	106 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	161.1	82 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	226.8	100 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.88	75 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.75	88 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.25	56 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.63	58 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.03	123 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.04	68 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	35.4%	133 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	45.0%	120 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	9.3%	134 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.9%	75 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.9%	99 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.9%	90 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	2.66	137 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.55	120 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 29	85 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 31	105 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	61.6	112 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.11	133 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.06	81 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.07	90 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.01	52 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	32.2%	137 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	38.5%	106 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	20.6%	120 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	27.6%	110 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	27.3%	40 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	36.4%	105 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	39.3%	75 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	54.2%	112 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	66.6%	100 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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