Matchup analysis
Our model projects Miami (OH) 29, Kent State 20 at Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Miami (OH) wins about 72% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.1 points and 48.5 combined points.
Miami (OH) is 5-3 against the 119th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 25.8 points per game (+1.2 per game). Kent State is 3-5 against the 68th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-15.6 per game).
Miami (OH)'s below-average offense (103rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kent State's struggling defense (129th); that mismatch is where most of Miami (OH)'s projected points come from. Expect Kent State to find it hard going: Miami (OH)'s below-average defense (92nd) outranks Kent State's struggling offense (136th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami (OH) by 32 and Kent State by 13 about 80% of the time.
Kent State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Miami (OH) is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Miami (OH) vs Kent State: stat comparison
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.0#80 | 14.9#138 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8#88 | 30.5#115 |
| Yards per play | 6.51#33 | 4.97#133 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.94#90 | 6.35#119 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.1#88 | 116.6#131 |
| Net passing yards per game | 218.8#77 | 189.9#106 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 108.0#11 | 161.1#82 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.6#131 | 226.8#100 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#55 | 0.88#75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88#65 | 0.75#88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#75 | 2.25#56 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#115 | 1.63#58 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#60 | -0.03#123 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#78 | +0.04#68 |
| Success rate | 40.5%#104 | 35.4%#133 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7%#68 | 45.0%#120 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#27 | 9.3%#134 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.4%#14 | 11.9%#75 |
| Havoc rate | 13.3%#88 | 12.9%#99 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#96 | 13.9%#90 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.97#84 | 2.66#137 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95#86 | 4.55#120 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#26 | own 29#85 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#19 | own 31#105 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.8#135 | 61.6#112 |
| Stat | Miami (OH) | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#80 | -0.11#133 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#55 | +0.06#81 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#34 | +0.07#90 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#98 | +0.01#52 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.0%#91 | 32.2%#137 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#91 | 38.5%#106 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.3%#88 | 20.6%#120 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4%#80 | 27.6%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.9%#110 | 27.3%#40 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.0%#100 | 36.4%#105 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#110 | 39.3%#75 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.2%#105 | 54.2%#112 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.9%#88 | 66.6%#100 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami (OH) schedule · Kent State schedule · all Week 12 projections
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