Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Western Michigan 33.9, Kent State 14.1 at Waldo Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Western Michigan wins about 90% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 19.8 points and 47.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans low scoring.
Kent State is 2-3, scoring 15 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-16.4 per game). Western Michigan is 3-2, scoring 23.2 and allowing 19.4 points per game (+3.8 per game).
Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (53rd) should limit Kent State's struggling offense (135th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 15.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Western Michigan's below-average offense (93rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.7 points against an average defense) against Kent State's struggling defense (130th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kent State by 3 and Western Michigan by 42 about 80% of the time.
Western Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Western Michigan by about 17.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Kent State 7, Western Michigan 38. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.2 points and the total by 2.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kent State / Western Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Western Michigan -13.75 | 44.5 → 43.5 | +437.5 / -612.5 |
| Bovada | Western Michigan -14 | 45.5 → 43.5 | +450 / -650 |
| DraftKings | Western Michigan -13.5 | 43.5 | +425 / -575 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Western Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Western Michigan -20 | 47.9 | 90% |
| Market consensus | Western Michigan -14 | 43.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Western Michigan -15 | 45.1 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Western Michigan win probability
- model 90% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Western Michigan -19.8 · market Western Michigan -13.75 · difference +6.1 pts (Western Michigan view)
- Total
- model 47.9 · market 43.5 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Western Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kent State 14.1, Western Michigan 33.9 | Western Michigan 90%right winner | 11.2 | 2.9 |
| New formula | Kent State 12.2, Western Michigan 32.7 | Western Michigan 91%right winner | 10.5 | 0.1 |
Final: Kent State 7, Western Michigan 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kent State vs Western Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kent State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.0#134 | 23.2#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.4#119 | 19.4#42 |
| Yards per play | 4.72#135 | 5.25#121 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.51#120 | 5.16#42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.6#117 | 161.6#81 |
| Net passing yards per game | 155.2#127 | 150.2#128 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.2#75 | 156.4#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.4#96 | 180.0#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.20#104 | 0.20#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#69 | 0.20#134 |
| Sacks per game | 2.20#56 | 1.60#97 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#34 | 1.60#72 |
| Stat | Kent State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#122 | +0.06#88 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#61 | +0.04#77 |
| Success rate | 34.9%#133 | 43.6%#64 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.9%#103 | 42.5%#92 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.4%#136 | 9.0%#134 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#36 | 11.0%#50 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#88 | 10.6%#130 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2%#98 | 11.0%#27 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.14#126 | 4.33#55 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.96#131 | 3.87#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#82 | own 30#62 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#100 | own 26#18 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.4#115 | 59.4#118 |
| Stat | Kent State | Western Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#126 | +0.10#66 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#109 | -0.01#104 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#99 | +0.02#60 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06#37 | +0.08#88 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.6%#132 | 43.1%#84 |
| Passing success rate | 36.3%#120 | 40.0%#89 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#119 | 13.9%#31 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.3%#96 | 29.7%#84 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3%#31 | 34.5%#117 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5%#92 | 41.9%#71 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.7%#67 | 44.1%#114 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.5%#84 | 74.2%#17 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 81.3%#128 | 55.9%#61 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kent State schedule · Western Michigan schedule · all Week 6 projections
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