Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio 34.4, Kent State 22.7 at Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Ohio wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.7 points and 57 combined points.
Ohio is 2-2, scoring 30.3 and allowing 31 points per game (-0.7 per game). Kent State is 2-2, scoring 16.3 and allowing 36 points per game (-19.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.1 points against an average defense) against Kent State's struggling defense (136th). Ohio's below-average defense (96th) should limit Kent State's struggling offense (129th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio by 34 and Kent State by 11 about 80% of the time.
Kent State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Ohio 13, Kent State 10. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.7 points and the total by 34.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 2:34 PM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio / Kent State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio -5.5 → Ohio -3.5 | 51.5 → 50.75 | -192.5 / +160 |
| DraftKings | Ohio -5.5 → Ohio -3.5 | 52.5 → 50.5 | -175 / +145 |
| Bovada | Ohio -5.5 → Ohio -3.5 | 50.5 → 51 | -210 / +175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kent State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio -11.5 | 57.0 | 22% |
| Market consensus | Ohio -3.5 | 50.8 | 37% |
| Blended projection | Ohio -5 | 51.8 | 37% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kent State win probability
- model 22% · market (no-vig) 37% · difference -15 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio -11.7 · market Ohio -3.5 · difference -8.2 pts (Kent State view)
- Total
- model 57.0 · market 50.75 · difference +6.3
Model margin is 8.2 pts more toward Ohio than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio 34.4, Kent State 22.7 | Ohio 78%right winner | 8.7 | 34.0 |
| New formula | Ohio 34.7, Kent State 22.4 | Ohio 79%right winner | 9.3 | 34.1 |
Final: Ohio 13, Kent State 10. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ohio vs Kent State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ohio | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.3#74 | 16.3#134 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0#122 | 36.0#131 |
| Yards per play | 5.97#80 | 4.89#129 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.08#102 | 6.85#128 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.5#42 | 143.3#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 190.3#103 | 146.3#130 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.0#108 | 142.8#65 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 202.5#69 | 273.3#130 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#74 | 1.00#91 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00#138 | 1.00#75 |
| Sacks per game | 0.75#133 | 2.25#56 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#83 | 0.50#8 |
| Stat | Ohio | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19#28 | -0.01#116 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#131 | +0.03#67 |
| Success rate | 44.4%#59 | 33.2%#135 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1%#95 | 43.7%#103 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.7%#99 | 9.7%#128 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4%#101 | 10.4%#46 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#86 | 13.1%#88 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.7%#16 | 12.8%#69 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.20#68 | 3.73#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.00#130 | 5.43#135 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#33 | own 29#96 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#101 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#82 | 59.3#120 |
| Stat | Ohio | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.26#5 | -0.05#119 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#68 | +0.03#93 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#95 | +0.08#97 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.45#137 | -0.01#58 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.6%#36 | 33.6%#132 |
| Passing success rate | 39.1%#98 | 32.6%#129 |
| Run stuff rate | 10.1%#5 | 22.5%#130 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#99 | 26.0%#112 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 41.1%#133 | 23.0%#15 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 55.4%#9 | 39.7%#87 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.1%#132 | 34.9%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.6%#10 | 70.0%#45 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.0%#83 | 81.3%#128 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio schedule · Kent State schedule · all Week 5 projections
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