Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kent State 25.5, Akron 24.9 at Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Kent State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.6 points and 50.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Akron is 1-6, scoring 18.9 and allowing 32.4 points per game (-13.5 per game). Kent State is 2-5, scoring 12 and allowing 32 points per game (-20 per game).
Akron's struggling offense (128th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.5 points against an average defense) meets Kent State's struggling defense (129th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Akron puts up. Kent State's struggling offense (136th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16 points against an average defense) meets Akron's struggling defense (132nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kent State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Akron by 22 and Kent State by 23 about 80% of the time.
Kent State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Akron would be favoured by 1.5. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Akron 20, Kent State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.4 points and the total by 4.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Akron / Kent State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kent State -3 | 47.5 | +124 / -148 |
| Opening line | Kent State -3.5 | 43.5 | +130 / -155 |
| DraftKings | Kent State -3 | 48.5 | +124 / -148 |
| FanDuel | Kent State -2.5 | 47.5 | +128 / -154 |
| BetRivers | Kent State -3 | 47.5 | +123 / -152 |
| BetMGM | Kent State -3 | 47.5 | +120 / -145 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kent State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kent State -0.5 | 50.4 | 52% |
| Market consensus | Kent State -3 | 47.5 | 57% |
| Blended projection | Kent State -2.5 | 48.7 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kent State win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Kent State -0.6 · market Kent State -3 · difference -2.4 pts (Kent State view)
- Total
- model 50.4 · market 47.5 · difference +2.9
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward Akron than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Akron 24.9, Kent State 25.5 | Kent State 52%right winner | 14.4 | 4.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Akron 20, Kent State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Akron vs Kent State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Akron | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3#108 | 21.3#115 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#86 | 33.6#128 |
| Yards per play | 5.26#117 | 5.50#101 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.14#104 | 5.91#82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 148.0#92 | 111.0#133 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.2#84 | 198.4#96 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.7#87 | 203.2#125 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 224.8#83 | 226.5#89 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#81 | 0.92#48 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17#57 | 0.75#111 |
| Sacks per game | 2.08#62 | 2.00#70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83#122 | 1.83#78 |
| Stat | Akron | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#119 | +0.01#85 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#76 | +0.10#118 |
| Success rate | 38.9%#113 | 38.1%#117 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.5%#67 | 45.0%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.1%#48 | 12.1%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9%#84 | 12.5%#71 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#24 | 11.1%#108 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#129 | 13.4%#105 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.22#125 | 3.84#84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.76#59 | 4.17#105 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#68 | own 29#87 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#128 | own 33#131 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.9#40 | 56.3#136 |
| Stat | Akron | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07#118 | -0.08#119 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#107 | +0.11#38 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#89 | +0.06#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01#66 | +0.14#114 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.6%#98 | 35.7%#130 |
| Passing success rate | 37.1%#107 | 37.0%#109 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.5%#95 | 21.4%#116 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0%#91 | 25.7%#118 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9%#62 | 36.7%#132 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.1%#130 | 28.9%#135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2%#30 | 45.1%#113 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 46.6%#126 | 51.7%#116 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#39 | 64.6%#99 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Akron schedule · Kent State schedule · all Week 8 projections
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