Matchup analysis
Our model projects Eastern Michigan 30, Kent State 20 at Rynearson Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Eastern Michigan wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.6 points and 50 combined points.
Kent State is 3-5 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-15.6 per game). Eastern Michigan is 4-5 against the 113th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.3 and allowing 25.7 points per game (-4.4 per game).
Expect Kent State to find it hard going: Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (108th) outranks Kent State's struggling offense (136th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16 points against an average defense). Eastern Michigan's below-average offense (114th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kent State's struggling defense (129th); that mismatch is where most of Eastern Michigan's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kent State by 13 and Eastern Michigan by 32 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Eastern Michigan by about 7.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Kent State vs Eastern Michigan: stat comparison
| Stat | Kent State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.9#138 | 21.3#113 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#115 | 25.7#86 |
| Yards per play | 4.97#133 | 4.92#134 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35#119 | 6.16#106 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.6#131 | 121.0#128 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9#106 | 206.8#86 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.1#82 | 144.6#56 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.8#100 | 234.3#107 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#75 | 1.00#88 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#88 | 0.78#83 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#56 | 1.56#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63#58 | 1.89#81 |
| Stat | Kent State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#123 | -0.01#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#68 | +0.07#80 |
| Success rate | 35.4%#133 | 39.7%#114 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#120 | 43.0%#91 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3%#134 | 10.4%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#75 | 13.9%#113 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#99 | 13.6%#76 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#90 | 13.7%#81 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.66#137 | 4.07#74 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.55#120 | 3.58#47 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#85 | own 27#127 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#105 | own 30#86 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6#112 | 66.6#65 |
| Stat | Kent State | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#133 | +0.03#92 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#81 | -0.04#119 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#90 | -0.03#36 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#52 | +0.16#105 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.2%#137 | 41.8%#92 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5%#106 | 36.3%#118 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.6%#120 | 18.8%#95 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6%#110 | 30.0%#89 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.3%#40 | 31.0%#90 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#105 | 40.0%#81 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#75 | 41.6%#99 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.2%#112 | 55.5%#103 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.6%#100 | 67.3%#108 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kent State schedule · Eastern Michigan schedule · all Week 13 projections
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