Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio State 35, Kent State 18.6 at Ohio Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Ohio State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.4 points and 53.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Kent State is 1-1, scoring 18 and allowing 36 points per game (-18 per game). Ohio State (No. 6) is 1-1, scoring 39.5 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+26 per game).
Ohio State's elite defense (1st) should limit Kent State's struggling offense (127th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.9 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Ohio State's elite offense (5th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.1 points against an average defense) against Kent State's struggling defense (138th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kent State by 6 and Ohio State by 39 about 80% of the time.
Ohio State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio State by about 14.3. The game is on Fox.
Result: Kent State 3, Ohio State 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 39.6 points and the total by 8.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kent State / Ohio State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -52.75 → Ohio State -52.25 | 57.5 → 58.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -52.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Ohio State -53 → Ohio State -52 | 58.5 → 59 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -16.5 | 53.5 | 86% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -52.5 | 58.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -46.5 | 58.6 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio State win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Ohio State -16.4 · market Ohio State -52.25 · difference -35.8 pts (Ohio State view)
- Total
- model 53.5 · market 58.75 · difference -5.2
Model margin is 35.8 pts more toward Kent State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kent State 18.6, Ohio State 35.0 | Ohio State 86%right winner | 39.6 | 8.5 |
| New formula | Kent State 1.7, Ohio State 56.5 | Ohio State 100%right winner | 1.2 | 3.9 |
Final: Kent State 3, Ohio State 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kent State vs Ohio State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kent State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.0#122 | 39.5#41 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.0#129 | 13.5#38 |
| Yards per play | 5.43#110 | 7.73#18 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.08#128 | 3.72#10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.5#84 | 178.5#70 |
| Net passing yards per game | 163.5#117 | 343.0#7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 182.5#112 | 102.0#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.5#114 | 153.0#34 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50#124 | 1.00#87 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#83 | 1.50#34 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#32 | 1.50#82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#32 | 2.00#90 |
| Stat | Kent State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#90 | +0.19#22 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#22 | +0.02#67 |
| Success rate | 36.9%#122 | 47.1%#31 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.3%#109 | 39.6%#59 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#110 | 15.6%#22 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#99 | 6.8%#8 |
| Havoc rate | 17.0%#31 | 11.9%#108 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.6%#78 | 14.8%#103 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.14#73 | 4.76#30 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.25#131 | 4.40#110 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#124 | own 30#92 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#71 | own 25#36 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.5#106 | 67.5#54 |
| Stat | Kent State | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#60 | -0.01#106 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.00#100 | +0.34#15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21#131 | +0.10#107 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.31#4 | -0.06#35 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.9%#112 | 39.1%#104 |
| Passing success rate | 35.6%#113 | 54.1%#22 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.9%#109 | 19.3%#97 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.2%#117 | 30.0%#84 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 17.2%#8 | 32.0%#96 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.5%#46 | 44.0%#63 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.1%#74 | 40.0%#83 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 100.0%#4 | 65.9%#66 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 85.7%#127 | 72.6%#107 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kent State schedule · Ohio State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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