Matchup analysis
Our model projects Kent State 27, Sacramento State 22 at Hornet Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Kent State wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 49.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Kent State is 3-5 against the 68th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-15.6 per game). Sacramento State is 1-7 against the 136th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 15.3 and allowing 32.9 points per game (-17.6 per game).
Kent State's struggling offense (136th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16 points against an average defense) meets Sacramento State's struggling defense (139th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kent State puts up. Sacramento State's struggling offense (139th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 12.9 points against an average defense) meets Kent State's struggling defense (129th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Sacramento State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kent State by 27 and Sacramento State by 18 about 80% of the time.
Sacramento State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Kent State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kent State / Sacramento State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kent State -10 | 46.5 | -379.5 / +297.5 |
| FanDuel | Kent State -9.5 | 46.5 | -375 / +290 |
| DraftKings | Kent State -10 | 46.5 | -395 / +310 |
| BetRivers | Kent State -10 | 46.5 | -385 / +290 |
| theScore Bet | Kent State -9.5 | 46.5 | -360 / +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Kent State -9.5 | 46.5 | -375 / +300 |
| BetMGM | Kent State -10 | 46.5 | -375 / +300 |
| Pinnacle | Kent State -10 | 46.5 | -384 / +302 |
| Bovada | Kent State -10 | 46.5 | -390 / +295 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Sacramento State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kent State -4.5 | 49.1 | 38% |
| Market consensus | Kent State -10 | 46.5 | 24% |
| Blended projection | Kent State -9 | 47.7 | 27% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Sacramento State win probability
- model 38% · market (no-vig) 24% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Kent State -4.6 · market Kent State -10 · difference +5.4 pts (Sacramento State view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 46.5 · difference +2.6
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Sacramento State 25%.
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward Sacramento State than the market.
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Kent State vs Sacramento State: stat comparison
| Stat | Kent State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.9#138 | 15.3#134 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#115 | 32.9#127 |
| Yards per play | 4.97#133 | 4.98#132 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35#119 | 6.23#112 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.6#131 | 120.5#129 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9#106 | 197.6#98 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.1#82 | 183.1#104 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.8#100 | 193.8#48 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#75 | 1.13#101 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#88 | 0.63#104 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#56 | 1.13#130 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63#58 | 2.13#88 |
| Stat | Kent State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#123 | -0.07#134 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#68 | +0.06#76 |
| Success rate | 35.4%#133 | 38.8%#120 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#120 | 41.9%#79 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3%#134 | 8.4%#135 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#75 | 14.2%#120 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#99 | 10.5%#134 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#90 | 15.6%#121 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.66#137 | 2.88#134 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.55#120 | 4.22#105 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#85 | own 29#97 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#105 | own 29#71 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6#112 | 63.9#90 |
| Stat | Kent State | Sacramento State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#133 | -0.02#118 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#81 | -0.12#131 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#90 | +0.06#84 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#52 | +0.07#76 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.2%#137 | 39.6%#107 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5%#106 | 35.4%#123 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.6%#120 | 22.0%#130 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6%#110 | 24.7%#127 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.3%#40 | 26.4%#32 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#105 | 32.1%#130 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#75 | 40.9%#92 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.2%#112 | 33.4%#138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.6%#100 | 67.7%#111 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kent State schedule · Sacramento State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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