Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kent State 31, Ball State 29.5 at Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Kent State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 60.4 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Ball State is 1-2, scoring 19.7 and allowing 41.3 points per game (-21.6 per game). Kent State is 1-2, scoring 13 and allowing 43.7 points per game (-30.7 per game).
Ball State's struggling offense (133rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.8 points against an average defense) meets Kent State's struggling defense (138th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ball State puts up. Kent State's struggling offense (131st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 19.1 points against an average defense) meets Ball State's struggling defense (137th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kent State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ball State by 21 and Kent State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Kent State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Ball State would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Ball State 13, Kent State 26. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.5 points and the total by 21.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ball State / Kent State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kent State -3.75 → Kent State -2.5 | 50.5 → 51.5 | +127 / -150 |
| DraftKings | Kent State -4.5 → Kent State -2.5 | 51.5 | +114 / -135 |
| Bovada | Kent State -3 → Kent State -2.5 | 49.5 → 51.5 | +140 / -165 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kent State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kent State -1.5 | 60.4 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Kent State -2.5 | 51.5 | 58% |
| Blended projection | Kent State -2.5 | 52.7 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kent State win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 58% · difference -4 pts
- Margin
- model Kent State -1.5 · market Kent State -2.5 · difference -1.0 pts (Kent State view)
- Total
- model 60.4 · market 51.5 · difference +8.9
Model margin is 1.0 pts more toward Ball State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ball State 29.5, Kent State 31.0 | Kent State 54%right winner | 11.5 | 21.4 |
| New formula | Ball State 29.0, Kent State 31.5 | Kent State 57%right winner | 10.4 | 21.5 |
Final: Ball State 13, Kent State 26. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ball State vs Kent State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Ball State | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.7#121 | 13.0#135 |
| Points allowed per game | 41.3#133 | 43.7#137 |
| Yards per play | 4.99#125 | 4.67#133 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.55#133 | 7.65#134 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.3#96 | 136.0#111 |
| Net passing yards per game | 151.3#122 | 132.0#127 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 219.7#130 | 172.3#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 281.0#129 | 312.0#133 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#97 | 1.33#119 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#77 | 1.33#43 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#88 | 2.33#47 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#122 | 0.67#29 |
| Stat | Ball State | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#103 | -0.05#124 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19#126 | +0.04#76 |
| Success rate | 35.5%#129 | 32.1%#137 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.4%#127 | 50.8%#135 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#90 | 9.2%#130 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.8%#128 | 12.3%#86 |
| Havoc rate | 14.5%#59 | 13.1%#91 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2%#111 | 15.3%#113 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.75#104 | 3.56#116 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 6.06#138 | 5.32#134 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#85 | own 27#121 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#65 | own 33#117 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.7#110 | 57.3#126 |
| Stat | Ball State | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#41 | -0.03#111 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.08#113 | -0.08#115 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04#80 | +0.21#131 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.32#130 | -0.08#32 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.1%#116 | 32.9%#133 |
| Passing success rate | 34.2%#123 | 31.1%#131 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#113 | 22.4%#122 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#112 | 25.0%#119 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 44.2%#136 | 22.2%#17 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 23.5%#135 | 40.8%#82 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 51.3%#128 | 34.5%#52 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.9%#130 | 66.7%#64 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 100.0%#137 | 78.6%#122 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ball State schedule · Kent State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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