Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina 33.7, Kent State 19.9 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: South Carolina wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.8 points and 53.6 combined points.
Kent State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. South Carolina has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
South Carolina's strong defense (28th) should limit Kent State's struggling offense (136th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: South Carolina's strong offense (19th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) against Kent State's struggling defense (129th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kent State by 9 and South Carolina by 36 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Carolina by about 11.7. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Kent State 0, South Carolina 57. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 43.2 points and the total by 3.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kent State / South Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina -34 → South Carolina -36 | 52.5 → 53 | -48000 / -75000 |
| Bovada | South Carolina -34.5 → South Carolina -36.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | -100000 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina -33.5 → South Carolina -35.5 | 52.5 | +4000 / -50000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina -14 | 53.6 | 82% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina -36 | 53.0 | 74% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina -32.5 | 53.6 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Carolina win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 74% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina -13.8 · market South Carolina -36 · difference -22.2 pts (South Carolina view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 53 · difference +0.6
Model margin is 22.2 pts more toward Kent State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kent State 19.9, South Carolina 33.7 | South Carolina 82%right winner | 43.2 | 3.4 |
| New formula | Kent State 8.1, South Carolina 48.3 | South Carolina 99%right winner | 16.8 | 0.6 |
Final: Kent State 0, South Carolina 57. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kent State vs South Carolina: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Kent State | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.3#115 | 22.7#104 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.6#128 | 22.1#44 |
| Yards per play | 5.50#101 | 5.67#84 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.91#82 | 5.63#52 |
| Rushing yards per game | 111.0#133 | 143.5#102 |
| Net passing yards per game | 198.4#96 | 208.9#91 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.2#125 | 149.4#45 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.5#89 | 223.3#79 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#48 | 1.25#98 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#111 | 1.17#54 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#70 | 1.50#104 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83#78 | 3.42#131 |
| Stat | Kent State | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#85 | -0.09#123 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#118 | -0.02#51 |
| Success rate | 38.1%#117 | 37.0%#123 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#116 | 41.8%#72 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#77 | 13.0%#50 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5%#71 | 12.6%#75 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#108 | 12.1%#79 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#105 | 15.6%#127 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.84#84 | 2.96#133 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.17#105 | 3.52#33 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#87 | own 27#129 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#131 | own 30#78 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 56.3#136 | 62.2#118 |
| Stat | Kent State | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#119 | -0.09#125 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11#38 | -0.09#110 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.06#109 | -0.07#22 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.14#114 | +0.04#82 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.7%#130 | 38.9%#109 |
| Passing success rate | 37.0%#109 | 35.2%#121 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4%#116 | 17.3%#52 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.7%#118 | 23.7%#130 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7%#132 | 29.6%#72 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.9%#135 | 34.0%#126 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.1%#113 | 40.0%#59 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.7%#116 | 62.5%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.6%#99 | 46.5%#8 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kent State schedule · South Carolina schedule · all Week 1 projections
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