Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kent State 33.8, Wofford 12.5 at Zoeller Field at Dix Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Kent State wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.3 points and 46.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Wofford is 2-0, scoring 29.5 and allowing 13.5 points per game (+16 per game). Kent State is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 57 points per game (-57 per game).
Wofford plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Kent State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wofford by 1 and Kent State by 44 about 80% of the time.
Kent State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kent State by about 19.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Wofford 15, Kent State 36. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 4.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wofford / Kent State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kent State -11.25 → Kent State -10.5 | 47.25 → 46.25 | +350 / -455 |
| Bovada | Kent State -11 | 47 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Kent State -11.5 → Kent State -10 | 47.5 → 45.5 | +350 / -455 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kent State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kent State -21.5 | 46.3 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Kent State -10.5 | 46.3 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Kent State -12.5 | 47.3 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kent State win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Kent State -21.3 · market Kent State -10.5 · difference +10.8 pts (Kent State view)
- Total
- model 46.3 · market 46.25 · difference 0.0
Model margin is 10.8 pts more toward Kent State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wofford 12.5, Kent State 33.8 | Kent State 92%right winner | 0.3 | 4.7 |
| New formula | Wofford 23.4, Kent State 28.3 | Kent State 62%right winner | 16.1 | 0.7 |
Final: Wofford 15, Kent State 36. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wofford vs Kent State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wofford | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.8 | 21.3#115 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.3 | 33.6#128 |
| Yards per play | 5.11 | 5.50#101 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.33 | 5.91#82 |
| Rushing yards per game | 139.4 | 111.0#133 |
| Net passing yards per game | 168.5 | 198.4#96 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 134.2 | 203.2#125 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.4 | 226.5#89 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.73 | 0.92#48 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.64 | 0.75#111 |
| Sacks per game | 2.09 | 2.00#70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.64 | 1.83#78 |
| Stat | Wofford | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.01#85 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | +0.10#118 |
| Success rate | 35.1% | 38.1%#117 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.0% | 45.0%#116 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1% | 12.1%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.2% | 12.5%#71 |
| Havoc rate | 16.2% | 11.1%#108 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.3% | 13.4%#105 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.99 | 3.84#84 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.95 | 4.17#105 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 29#87 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 33#131 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3 | 56.3#136 |
| Stat | Wofford | Kent State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.08#119 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21 | +0.11#38 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.12 | +0.06#109 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00 | +0.14#114 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.2% | 35.7%#130 |
| Passing success rate | 32.4% | 37.0%#109 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3% | 21.4%#116 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.5% | 25.7%#118 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.5% | 36.7%#132 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 28.9%#135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 45.1%#113 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 51.7%#116 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.9% | 64.6%#99 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wofford schedule · Kent State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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