Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bowling Green 25, Kent State 19 at Doyt L. Perry Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Bowling Green wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.3 points and 44.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Kent State is 3-5 against the 67th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 30.5 points per game (-15.6 per game). Bowling Green is 2-6 against the 99th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.8 and allowing 29.8 points per game (-11 per game).
Bowling Green's below-average defense (106th) should limit Kent State's struggling offense (136th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16 points against an average defense). Bowling Green's struggling offense (134th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 16.6 points against an average defense) meets Kent State's struggling defense (129th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Bowling Green puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kent State by 16 and Bowling Green by 29 about 80% of the time.
Bowling Green gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Bowling Green by about 4.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Kent State vs Bowling Green: stat comparison
| Stat | Kent State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 14.9#138 | 18.8#130 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.5#115 | 29.8#109 |
| Yards per play | 4.97#133 | 5.10#128 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35#119 | 6.34#118 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.6#131 | 112.8#134 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.9#106 | 179.9#117 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.1#82 | 227.4#134 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.8#100 | 157.1#11 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88#75 | 0.88#72 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75#88 | 0.63#103 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#56 | 2.38#46 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63#58 | 1.50#48 |
| Stat | Kent State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03#123 | -0.03#122 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#68 | +0.09#97 |
| Success rate | 35.4%#133 | 41.9%#83 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.0%#120 | 45.7%#126 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.3%#134 | 10.2%#127 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#75 | 12.9%#93 |
| Havoc rate | 12.9%#99 | 13.7%#71 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.9%#90 | 14.6%#105 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.66#137 | 3.43#116 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.55#120 | 4.04#94 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#85 | own 29#96 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#105 | own 31#110 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.6#112 | 57.4#136 |
| Stat | Kent State | Bowling Green |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#133 | -0.12#135 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#81 | +0.07#77 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#90 | +0.15#126 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#52 | +0.01#54 |
| Rushing success rate | 32.2%#137 | 38.6%#116 |
| Passing success rate | 38.5%#106 | 44.9%#46 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.6%#120 | 20.4%#118 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6%#110 | 26.7%#115 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.3%#40 | 31.2%#94 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#105 | 42.3%#64 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.3%#75 | 36.4%#47 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.2%#112 | 55.2%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.6%#100 | 58.0%#63 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kent State schedule · Bowling Green schedule · all Week 11 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.