Matchup analysis
Our model projects South Florida 34, Florida Atlantic 27 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: South Florida wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.9 points and 61 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
South Florida is 5-2 against the 133rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 26.6 and allowing 15.1 points per game (+11.5 per game). Florida Atlantic is 5-2 against the 120th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.3 and allowing 34 points per game (+3.3 per game).
South Florida's below-average offense (90th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (135th); that mismatch is where most of South Florida's projected points come from. Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) meets South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida Atlantic puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Florida by 29 and Florida Atlantic by 16 about 80% of the time.
Florida Atlantic gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. South Florida is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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South Florida vs Florida Atlantic: stat comparison
| Stat | South Florida | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.6#84 | 37.3#17 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.1#10 | 34.0#130 |
| Yards per play | 5.48#113 | 5.64#102 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.19#37 | 7.09#135 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.7#91 | 137.3#113 |
| Net passing yards per game | 167.0#125 | 289.1#12 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.0#69 | 264.0#137 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.4#22 | 187.0#42 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#34 | 0.43#22 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#114 | 0.86#77 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86#85 | 1.14#126 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#71 | 1.86#75 |
| Stat | South Florida | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#90 | +0.17#34 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#58 | +0.17#123 |
| Success rate | 44.3%#52 | 46.8%#33 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#78 | 41.9%#82 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#121 | 9.9%#130 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.2%#59 | 14.7%#128 |
| Havoc rate | 13.2%#90 | 13.1%#92 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#95 | 12.9%#58 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.45#39 | 4.11#70 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.34#26 | 3.86#75 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#24 | own 32#32 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#17 | own 27#38 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.9#128 | 75.6#4 |
| Stat | South Florida | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#70 | +0.13#43 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#102 | +0.20#35 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#52 | +0.25#136 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04#67 | +0.05#69 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.0%#20 | 44.2%#73 |
| Passing success rate | 44.4%#50 | 51.7%#13 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1%#116 | 16.2%#55 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.3%#83 | 36.5%#25 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.3%#97 | 30.6%#78 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.3%#77 | 52.7%#12 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5%#69 | 39.8%#85 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#49 | 65.2%#56 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 37.6%#3 | 69.6%#120 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Florida schedule · Florida Atlantic schedule · all Week 12 projections
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