Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Florida 33.4, Temple 22.5 at Raymond James Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: South Florida wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.9 points and 55.9 combined points.
Temple is 1-3, scoring 28 and allowing 27.8 points per game (+0.2 per game). South Florida is 4-0, scoring 30 and allowing 14 points per game (+16 per game).
South Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd) should limit Temple's below-average offense (95th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: South Florida's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.5 points against an average defense) against Temple's below-average defense (114th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Temple by 12 and South Florida by 33 about 80% of the time.
South Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Florida by about 8.8. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Temple 17, South Florida 13. Temple won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 14.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Temple / South Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Florida -6 → South Florida -5.5 | 52 → 49.5 | +180 / -219 |
| DraftKings | South Florida -6.5 → South Florida -5.5 | 52.5 → 50.5 | +180 / -218 |
| Bovada | South Florida -5.5 | 51.5 → 48.5 | +180 / -220 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Florida -11 | 55.9 | 76% |
| Market consensus | South Florida -5.5 | 49.5 | 66% |
| Blended projection | South Florida -6.5 | 50.7 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Florida win probability
- model 76% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model South Florida -10.9 · market South Florida -5.5 · difference +5.4 pts (South Florida view)
- Total
- model 55.9 · market 49.5 · difference +6.4
Model margin is 5.4 pts more toward South Florida than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Temple 22.5, South Florida 33.4 | South Florida 76%wrong winner | 14.9 | 25.9 |
| New formula | Temple 21.8, South Florida 34.3 | South Florida 79%wrong winner | 16.5 | 26.1 |
Final: Temple 17, South Florida 13. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Temple vs South Florida: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Temple | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0#85 | 30.0#76 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.8#105 | 14.0#21 |
| Yards per play | 6.50#57 | 6.16#73 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.06#99 | 5.14#50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 228.5#21 | 187.8#50 |
| Net passing yards per game | 159.8#124 | 165.0#116 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.0#75 | 129.8#50 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.3#115 | 198.0#65 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#64 | 0.75#65 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#116 | 1.00#60 |
| Sacks per game | 0.75#131 | 1.50#100 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#76 | 2.00#94 |
| Stat | Temple | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#54 | +0.11#67 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.18#123 | +0.04#68 |
| Success rate | 43.8%#65 | 47.4%#31 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8%#119 | 42.4%#86 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2%#48 | 11.7%#97 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.8%#107 | 10.9%#62 |
| Havoc rate | 9.5%#132 | 14.9%#59 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.1%#10 | 14.6%#100 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.80#100 | 4.96#19 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.60#122 | 3.68#62 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#119 | own 33#30 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#121 | own 27#34 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.8#116 | 57.3#128 |
| Stat | Temple | South Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#39 | +0.15#33 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14#59 | +0.04#86 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#111 | -0.07#29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.27#122 | +0.14#98 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4%#44 | 53.0%#12 |
| Passing success rate | 37.8%#109 | 49.0%#30 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.2%#50 | 18.6%#90 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1%#34 | 35.1%#43 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.8%#112 | 28.9%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.6%#89 | 45.0%#52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.0%#133 | 32.7%#33 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.7%#28 | 70.6%#42 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%#94 | 48.7%#34 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Temple schedule · South Florida schedule · all Week 5 projections
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