Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UTSA 37.2, Colorado State 21.8 at Alamodome in Week 4. That is a solid edge: UTSA wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.4 points and 59 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Colorado State is 2-1, scoring 38.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+12.7 per game). UTSA is 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 24 points per game (+3.3 per game).
Expect Colorado State to find it hard going: UTSA's middle-of-the-pack defense (59th) outranks Colorado State's below-average offense (92nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.4 points against an average defense). UTSA's strong offense (40th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colorado State's below-average defense (110th); that mismatch is where most of UTSA's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado State by 7 and UTSA by 38 about 80% of the time.
UTSA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UTSA by about 13.3. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Colorado State 45, UTSA 59. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.4 points and the total by 45.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colorado State / UTSA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UTSA -12 → UTSA -14.25 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +432.5 / -600 |
| DraftKings | UTSA -11.5 → UTSA -14.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +490 / -675 |
| Bovada | UTSA -12.5 → UTSA -14 | 57.5 → 56.5 | +375 / -525 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UTSA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UTSA -15.5 | 59.0 | 84% |
| Market consensus | UTSA -14.5 | 56.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | UTSA -14.5 | 56.9 | 84% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UTSA win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model UTSA -15.4 · market UTSA -14.25 · difference +1.2 pts (UTSA view)
- Total
- model 59.0 · market 56.5 · difference +2.5
Model margin is 1.2 pts more toward UTSA than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Colorado State 21.8, UTSA 37.2 | UTSA 84%right winner | 1.4 | 45.0 |
| New formula | Colorado State 21.2, UTSA 37.0 | UTSA 85%right winner | 1.8 | 45.9 |
Final: Colorado State 45, UTSA 59. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Colorado State vs UTSA: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Colorado State | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.7#37 | 27.3#92 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0#95 | 24.0#82 |
| Yards per play | 6.95#37 | 5.99#86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.79#135 | 5.84#95 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.7#63 | 152.7#94 |
| Net passing yards per game | 284.7#30 | 203.0#91 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 240.0#135 | 231.7#133 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 209.3#78 | 233.3#102 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#62 | 0.33#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 3.33#1 | 1.33#38 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#79 | 0.67#128 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33#5 | 0.33#6 |
| Stat | Colorado State | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#42 | +0.03#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#110 | -0.03#41 |
| Success rate | 44.5%#60 | 45.4%#44 |
| Success rate allowed | 46.9%#124 | 43.2%#101 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#86 | 9.5%#126 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.4%#132 | 8.8%#16 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#32 | 10.6%#121 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#47 | 12.1%#51 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.55#46 | 3.70#106 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#86 | 3.41#38 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#38 | own 31#68 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#34 | own 28#67 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.0#57 | 59.3#115 |
| Stat | Colorado State | UTSA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07#73 | +0.13#42 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#42 | -0.06#108 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21#132 | +0.05#87 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#49 | -0.11#27 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1%#72 | 53.6%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 46.1%#52 | 39.8%#94 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.2%#129 | 17.1%#78 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.0%#23 | 23.2%#128 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6%#93 | 35.1%#114 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#29 | 20.0%#137 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.5%#57 | 46.0%#115 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.6%#69 | 40.8%#133 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.1%#68 | 43.3%#21 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado State schedule · UTSA schedule · all Week 4 projections
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