2026 schedule
Colorado State Rams
2026 season so far
Colorado State is 3-4 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.6 and allowing 44 points per game (-5.4 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Colorado State ranks 110th of 139 FBS teams overall — 56th on offense and 136th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at Utah State in Week 9. We project Colorado State 26, Utah State 34 — Colorado State wins 32% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Wyoming Cowboys
0-1 · SOS #130
Win 35-13
Week 1
Our number· model now
Colorado State by 1
Total 57
DraftKings
CSU -2.5
Total 45.5
Final Colorado State by 22. Colorado State beat the spread. 48 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Colorado State -2.75 (open Colorado State -4) · O/U 46 (open 47.5) · ML +137.5 / -161 · Colorado State 59% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, -5 pct pts (Colorado State view)
USA Net Canvas Stadium - vs
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
1-2 · SOS #39
Win 58-24
Week 2
Our number· model now
Colorado State by 8
Total 68
DraftKings
CSU -19.5
Total 57.5
Final Colorado State by 34. Colorado State beat the spread. 82 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colorado State -19.75 (open Colorado State -20.25) · O/U 57.25 (open 56.5) · ML +775 / -1375 · Colorado State 89% no-vig · model vs market -11.7 pts, -20 pct pts (Colorado State view)
CBSSN Canvas Stadium - vs
#11 BYU Cougars
3-0 · SOS #36
Loss 23-41
Week 3
Our number· model now
BYU by 23
Total 65
DraftKings
BYU -17.5
Total 54.5
Final BYU by 18. BYU beat the spread. 64 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -17.5 (open BYU -19.5) · O/U 54.25 (open 52.25) · ML -1050 / +650 · Colorado State 13% no-vig · model vs market -5.5 pts, -7 pct pts (Colorado State view)
CBS Canvas Stadium - at
UTSA Roadrunners
3-1 · SOS #73
Loss 45-59
Week 4
Our number· model now
UTSA by 15
Total 73
DraftKings
UTSA -14.5
Total 56.5
Final UTSA by 14. Colorado State beat the spread. 104 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -14.25 (open UTSA -12) · O/U 56.5 (open 57.5) · ML +432.5 / -600 · UTSA 82% no-vig · model vs market +0.8 pts, +2 pct pts (UTSA view)
ESPNU Alamodome - vs
Oregon State Beavers
3-2 · SOS #87
Loss 26-56
Week 5
Our number· model now
Oregon State by 13
Total 73
DraftKings
ORST -7
Total 60.5
Final Oregon State by 30. Oregon State beat the spread. 82 points — over the 60.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -7 (open Oregon State -4) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.25) · ML -234 / +192.5 · Colorado State 33% no-vig · model vs market -6.0 pts, -12 pct pts (Colorado State view)
USA Net Canvas Stadium - at
Texas State Bobcats
3-3 · SOS #60
Loss 27-66
Week 7
Our number· model now
Texas State by 15
Total 81
DraftKings
TXST -15.5
Total 69.5
Final Texas State by 39. Texas State beat the spread. 93 points — over the 69.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas State -15.25 (open Texas State -12.75) · O/U 69.75 (open 67.5) · ML +432.5 / -600 · Texas State 82% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +2 pct pts (Texas State view)
CBSSN UFCU Stadium - vs
San Diego State Aztecs
3-5 · SOS #70
Win 56-49
Week 8
Our number· model now
Colorado State by 1
Total 69
DraftKings
SDSU -1.5
Total 57.5
Final Colorado State by 7. Colorado State beat the spread. 105 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego State -1.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -111 / -110 · Colorado State 49% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Colorado State view)
CW Canvas Stadium - at
Utah State Aggies
2-5 · SOS #38
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 26-34 · 32%
Our number
Utah State by 8
Total 60
DraftKings
USU -6.5
Total 63.5
We're 1.5 points higher on Utah State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah State -6.5 · O/U 63.5 · ML +192.5 / -240 · Utah State 68% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +1 pct pts (Utah State view)
USA Net Maverik Stadium - vs
#20 Boise State Broncos
6-1 · SOS #45
Sat, Nov 7, 11:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 23-45 · 8%
Our number
Boise State by 22
Total 68
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net Canvas Stadium - at
Washington State Cougars
1-7 · SOS #33
Sun, Nov 15, 3:30 AM
Week 11
Proj 29-34 · 38%
Our number
Washington State by 5
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Martin Stadium - at
Fresno State Bulldogs
4-3 · SOS #89
Sun, Nov 22, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 25-36 · 23%
Our number
Fresno State by 11
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Valley Children's Stadium - vs
TBD
No record
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 36-30 · 64%
Our number
Colorado State by 6
Total 66
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Canvas Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Colorado State Rams stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-10.1
109th in FBS
Adj. offense
27.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
38.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 38.6 | 12 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 44.0 | 138 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.88 | 18 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 8.40 | 138 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 187.1 | 48 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 289.4 | 11 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 275.1 | 138 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 289.0 | 137 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | 48 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.86 | 5 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.14 | 122 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.43 | 3 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.30 | 3 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.34 | 138 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 48.1% | 23 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 54.8% | 138 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.0% | 62 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 18.6% | 137 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.0% | 115 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.0% | 12 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.85 | 16 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 5.15 | 136 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 34 | 8 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 31 | 108 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.3 | 33 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.23 | 5 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.37 | 5 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.32 | 137 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.35 | 137 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 49.2% | 18 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 47.2% | 31 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.7% | 65 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 41.7% | 8 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 40.4% | 136 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 47.5% | 26 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 52.6% | 137 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 71.4% | 29 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 72.2% | 126 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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