Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colorado State 23.2, Wyoming 21.8 at Canvas Stadium in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Colorado State wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.4 points and 45 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Wyoming has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Colorado State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Wyoming's struggling offense (131st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17.1 points against an average defense) meets Colorado State's struggling defense (136th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Wyoming puts up. Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Wyoming's middle-of-the-pack defense (70th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colorado State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wyoming by 21 and Colorado State by 24 about 80% of the time.
Colorado State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Wyoming would be favoured by 0.7. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Wyoming 13, Colorado State 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 20.6 points and the total by 3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wyoming / Colorado State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Colorado State -4 → Colorado State -2.75 | 47.5 → 46 | +137.5 / -161 |
| DraftKings | Colorado State -4 → Colorado State -2.5 | 45.5 | +120 / -142 |
| Bovada | Colorado State -4 → Colorado State -3 | 47.5 → 46.5 | +155 / -180 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colorado State -1.5 | 45.0 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Colorado State -3 | 46.0 | 59% |
| Blended projection | Colorado State -2.5 | 47.1 | 57% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado State win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 59% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Colorado State -1.4 · market Colorado State -2.75 · difference -1.3 pts (Colorado State view)
- Total
- model 45.0 · market 46 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 1.3 pts more toward Wyoming than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wyoming 21.8, Colorado State 23.2 | Colorado State 54%right winner | 20.6 | 3.0 |
| New formula | Wyoming 18.2, Colorado State 28.8 | Colorado State 73%right winner | 11.4 | 1.0 |
Final: Wyoming 13, Colorado State 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wyoming vs Colorado State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wyoming | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 16.0#131 | 18.5#124 |
| Points allowed per game | 20.5#33 | 30.8#114 |
| Yards per play | 5.00#128 | 5.44#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.28#31 | 6.42#122 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.1#87 | 126.6#118 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.4#112 | 214.2#85 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.4#98 | 210.5#126 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.4#12 | 222.1#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#69 | 1.42#115 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#32 | 1.00#76 |
| Sacks per game | 1.17#125 | 1.33#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58#48 | 2.67#119 |
| Stat | Wyoming | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09#122 | -0.03#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#12 | +0.11#124 |
| Success rate | 39.0%#112 | 39.5%#109 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.8%#23 | 45.6%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2%#126 | 10.2%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.6%#34 | 14.5%#125 |
| Havoc rate | 12.3%#75 | 8.2%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0%#112 | 12.9%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.98#132 | 3.82#86 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.90#6 | 4.36#118 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#132 | own 27#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#91 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.7#60 | 62.6#112 |
| Stat | Wyoming | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#107 | +0.03#67 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.12#119 | -0.08#108 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#31 | +0.08#118 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16#17 | +0.15#117 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.4%#115 | 42.6%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 38.6%#100 | 37.0%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4%#118 | 18.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4%#104 | 27.0%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.1%#27 | 34.4%#121 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.3%#124 | 35.0%#117 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8%#27 | 47.7%#129 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.0%#134 | 73.3%#14 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.0%#19 | 69.8%#123 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wyoming schedule · Colorado State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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