Matchup analysis
Our model projects Washington State 34, Colorado State 29 at Martin Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Washington State wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.5 points and 62.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Colorado State is 3-4 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.6 and allowing 44 points per game (-5.4 per game). Washington State is 1-7 against the 39th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18.9 and allowing 27.6 points per game (-8.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) against Washington State's below-average defense (91st). Washington State's below-average offense (110th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Colorado State's struggling defense (136th); that mismatch is where most of Washington State's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado State by 18 and Washington State by 27 about 80% of the time.
Washington State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Washington State by about 2.4. The game is on CBSSN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Colorado State vs Washington State: stat comparison
| Stat | Colorado State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.6#12 | 18.9#129 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0#138 | 27.6#101 |
| Yards per play | 6.88#18 | 4.76#136 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.40#138 | 6.10#101 |
| Rushing yards per game | 187.1#48 | 140.3#110 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.4#11 | 164.8#126 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 275.1#138 | 179.0#101 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.0#137 | 216.3#89 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#48 | 1.13#102 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.86#5 | 0.38#133 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#122 | 1.00#132 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#3 | 3.13#132 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.30#3 | -0.07#135 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.34#138 | +0.07#83 |
| Success rate | 48.1%#23 | 34.8%#136 |
| Success rate allowed | 54.8%#138 | 41.4%#74 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#62 | 7.5%#137 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 18.6%#137 | 13.0%#98 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#115 | 12.0%#116 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0%#12 | 15.3%#119 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.85#16 | 3.32#123 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.15#136 | 4.02#92 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#8 | own 25#138 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#108 | own 32#124 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#33 | 64.1#88 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Washington State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.23#5 | +0.01#109 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37#5 | -0.13#132 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.32#137 | +0.07#89 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#137 | +0.07#78 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.2%#18 | 37.3%#125 |
| Passing success rate | 47.2%#31 | 33.0%#134 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#65 | 22.2%#131 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.7%#8 | 22.1%#138 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 40.4%#136 | 29.9%#70 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.5%#26 | 30.4%#135 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6%#137 | 39.3%#77 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#29 | 62.5%#67 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.2%#126 | 56.3%#52 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado State schedule · Washington State schedule · all Week 11 projections
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