Matchup analysis
Our model projects Utah State 34, Colorado State 26 at Maverik Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Utah State wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.2 points and 60 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Colorado State is 3-4 against the 57th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.6 and allowing 44 points per game (-5.4 per game). Utah State is 2-5 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 14.9 and allowing 23 points per game (-8.1 per game).
Colorado State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Utah State's middle-of-the-pack defense (64th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Colorado State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Utah State's below-average offense (109th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.3 points against an average defense) against Colorado State's struggling defense (136th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado State by 15 and Utah State by 30 about 80% of the time.
Utah State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah State by about 5.1. The game is on USA Net.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Colorado State / Utah State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah State -6.5 | 63.5 | +192.5 / -240 |
| FanDuel | Utah State -6.5 | 62.5 | +190 / -235 |
| DraftKings | Utah State -6.5 | 63.5 | +190 / -230 |
| BetMGM | Utah State -6.5 | 63.5 | +195 / -235 |
| theScore Bet | Utah State -6.5 | 63.5 | +200 / -240 |
| Pinnacle | Utah State -6.5 | 63 | +203 / -243 |
| Bovada | Utah State -6.5 | 63 | +205 / -245 |
| BetRivers | Utah State -6.5 | 63.5 | +188 / -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Utah State -6.5 | 63.5 | +190 / -240 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah State -7 | 60.0 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Utah State -6.5 | 63.5 | 68% |
| Blended projection | Utah State -6.5 | 63.0 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah State win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 68% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model Utah State -7.2 · market Utah State -6.5 · difference +0.7 pts (Utah State view)
- Total
- model 60.0 · market 63.5 · difference -3.5
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Utah State 68%.
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Utah State than the market.
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Colorado State vs Utah State: stat comparison
| Stat | Colorado State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.6#12 | 14.9#137 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0#138 | 23.0#59 |
| Yards per play | 6.88#18 | 5.21#124 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.40#138 | 5.00#25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 187.1#48 | 133.1#116 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.4#11 | 196.9#99 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 275.1#138 | 146.6#59 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 289.0#137 | 203.0#61 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#48 | 1.57#132 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.86#5 | 0.71#95 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#122 | 1.86#83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.43#3 | 3.00#129 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.30#3 | -0.09#136 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.34#138 | -0.05#26 |
| Success rate | 48.1%#23 | 35.2%#134 |
| Success rate allowed | 54.8%#138 | 40.3%#63 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0%#62 | 11.3%#106 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 18.6%#137 | 7.7%#5 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0%#115 | 11.7%#118 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.0%#12 | 17.3%#134 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.85#16 | 2.50#138 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.15#136 | 3.20#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#8 | own 31#46 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#108 | own 27#37 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#33 | 63.3#96 |
| Stat | Colorado State | Utah State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.23#5 | -0.09#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37#5 | -0.10#128 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.32#137 | -0.01#45 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.35#137 | -0.08#27 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.2%#18 | 35.8%#133 |
| Passing success rate | 47.2%#31 | 34.8%#126 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#65 | 21.8%#127 |
| Passing-down success rate | 41.7%#8 | 29.8%#94 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 40.4%#136 | 27.1%#38 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.5%#26 | 35.4%#113 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.6%#137 | 42.7%#106 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.4%#29 | 44.4%#133 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.2%#126 | 42.1%#9 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Colorado State schedule · Utah State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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