Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Colorado State 41.3, Southern Utah 15 at Canvas Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Colorado State wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.4 points and 56.3 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Southern Utah is 1-1, scoring 34 and allowing 35 points per game (-1 per game). Colorado State is 1-0, scoring 35 and allowing 13 points per game (+22 per game).
Southern Utah plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Colorado State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Colorado State by 4 and Colorado State by 49 about 80% of the time.
Colorado State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Colorado State by about 24.3. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.6 points and the total by 25.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern Utah / Colorado State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Colorado State -20.25 → Colorado State -19.75 | 56.5 → 57.25 | +775 / -1375 |
| Bovada | Colorado State -20 | 56.5 → 57 | +750 / -1400 |
| DraftKings | Colorado State -20.5 → Colorado State -19.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +800 / -1350 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Colorado State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Colorado State -26.5 | 56.3 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Colorado State -20 | 57.3 | 89% |
| Blended projection | Colorado State -21 | 57.4 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Colorado State win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model Colorado State -26.4 · market Colorado State -19.75 · difference +6.6 pts (Colorado State view)
- Total
- model 56.3 · market 57.25 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 6.6 pts more toward Colorado State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern Utah 15.0, Colorado State 41.3 | Colorado State 96%right winner | 7.6 | 25.7 |
| New formula | Southern Utah 21.6, Colorado State 37.0 | Colorado State 82%right winner | 18.6 | 23.5 |
Final: Southern Utah 24, Colorado State 58. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern Utah vs Colorado State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern Utah | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.8 | 18.5#124 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 30.8#114 |
| Yards per play | 6.66 | 5.44#105 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.35 | 6.42#122 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.6 | 126.6#118 |
| Net passing yards per game | 219.6 | 214.2#85 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.2 | 210.5#126 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.0 | 222.1#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.64 | 1.42#115 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.00#76 |
| Sacks per game | 2.18 | 1.33#118 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.36 | 2.67#119 |
| Stat | Southern Utah | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 | -0.03#108 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.11#124 |
| Success rate | 48.5% | 39.5%#109 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.6% | 45.6%#122 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.0% | 10.2%#125 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5% | 14.5%#125 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 8.2%#135 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0% | 12.9%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.82#86 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.36#118 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 27#128 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.9 | 62.6#112 |
| Stat | Southern Utah | Colorado State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.03#67 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.08#108 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.08#118 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.15#117 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.9% | 42.6%#81 |
| Passing success rate | 50.8% | 37.0%#110 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7% | 18.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.4% | 27.0%#110 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.0% | 34.4%#121 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.7% | 35.0%#117 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.0% | 47.7%#129 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 73.3%#14 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 69.8%#123 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern Utah schedule · Colorado State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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