2026 schedule
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
2026 season so far
Southern Utah is 3-5 against the 38th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.8 and allowing 33.1 points per game (-1.3 per game).
Southern Utah plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Northern Arizona in Week 9. We project Southern Utah 32, Northern Arizona 29 — Southern Utah wins 56% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Montana Grizzlies
1-0 · SOS #50
Loss 21-28
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana by 10.1
Total 65.3
DraftKings
MONT -15.5
Total 59.5
Final Montana by 7. Southern Utah beat the spread. 49 points — under the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -15.5 (open Montana -16.5) · O/U 59.5 (open 58.5) · ML +620 / -1080 · Montana 87% no-vig · model vs market -5.4 pts, -12 pct pts (Montana view)
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - vs
Weber State Wildcats
1-1 · SOS #73
Win 47-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Southern Utah by 8.8
Total 61.2
DraftKings
SUU -14.5
Total 58.5
Final Southern Utah by 5. Weber State beat the spread. 89 points — over the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Utah -14.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML +520 / -820 · Southern Utah 85% no-vig · model vs market -5.7 pts, -13 pct pts (Southern Utah view)
ESPN+ Eccles ColiseumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - at
Colorado State Rams
2-0 · SOS #57
Loss 24-58
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Colorado State by 26.3
Total 56.3
DraftKings
CSU -19.5
Total 57.5
Final Colorado State by 34. Colorado State beat the spread. 82 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colorado State -19.75 (open Colorado State -20.25) · O/U 57.25 (open 56.5) · ML +775 / -1375 · Colorado State 89% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +7 pct pts (Colorado State view)
CBSSN Canvas StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - at
St. Thomas Tommies
3-1 · SOS #127
Loss 26-28
Week 3
Our number· pregame
St. Thomas by 0.9
Total 62.1
DraftKings
SUU -12.5
Total 62.5
Final St. Thomas by 2. St. Thomas beat the spread. 54 points — under the 62.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Utah -12.5 (open Southern Utah -14) · O/U 62.5 (open 57.5) · ML -398 / +294 · St. Thomas 24% no-vig · model vs market +13.4 pts, +28 pct pts (St. Thomas view)
O'Shaughnessy StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: hit · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - vs
Idaho State Bengals
4-0 · SOS #122
Loss 24-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 3.7
Total 63.9
DraftKings
IDST -9.5
Total 61.5
Final Idaho State by 4. Southern Utah beat the spread. 52 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -9.5 (open Idaho State -10.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.5) · ML -339 / +256 · Southern Utah 27% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +14 pct pts (Southern Utah view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCDC)ESPN+ Eccles ColiseumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - at
Utah Tech Trailblazers
0-6 · SOS #17
Win 46-33
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Southern Utah by 14.4
Total 57.4
DraftKings
SUU -10.5
Total 56.5
Final Southern Utah by 13. Southern Utah beat the spread. 79 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Utah -10.5 (open Southern Utah -14.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML -510 / +361 · Utah Tech 21% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -3 pct pts (Utah Tech view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGU)ESPN+ Greater Zion StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - vs
UC Davis Aggies
4-3 · SOS #86
Win 38-17
Week 7
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 0.9
Total 65.3
DraftKings
UCD -4.5
Total 65.5
Final Southern Utah by 21. Southern Utah beat the spread. 55 points — under the 65.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -4.5 (open UC Davis -5.5) · O/U 65.5 (open 64.5) · ML -196 / +155 · Southern Utah 37% no-vig · model vs market +3.6 pts, +11 pct pts (Southern Utah view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 9 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCDC)ESPN+ Eccles ColiseumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - at
Idaho Vandals
3-5 · SOS #7
Loss 28-31
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Idaho by 1.1
Total 62.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Idaho by 3. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ Kibbie DomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
6-2 · SOS #16
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 32-29 · 56%
Our number
Southern Utah by 3
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 54°F, Wind 7 mph S, 29% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Eccles ColiseumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games - vs
Northern Colorado Bears
3-6 · SOS #62
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 33-19 · 81%
Our number
Southern Utah by 14
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Eccles Coliseum - at
Portland State Vikings
2-6 · SOS #8
Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 38-24 · 81%
Our number
Southern Utah by 14
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Hillsboro StadiumExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Chicago State Cougars
1-7 · SOS #134
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 39-21 · 88%
Our number
Southern Utah by 18
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Eccles ColiseumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Southern Utah Thunderbirds stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-15.9
Adj. offense
20.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 31.8 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 33.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 7.15 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.86 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 280.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 191.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 205.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 249.9 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.38 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.25 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.12 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.07 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.0% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.69 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.62 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 11 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 66.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.20 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.03 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.15 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.9% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 43.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.8% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 31.0% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 47.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 52.5% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 47.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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