Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho State 33.8, Southern Utah 30.1 at Eccles Coliseum in Week 4. That is a lean: Idaho State wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 63.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Idaho State is 3-0, scoring 42 and allowing 14.7 points per game (+27.3 per game). Southern Utah is 1-3, scoring 29.5 and allowing 39 points per game (-9.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Idaho State by 26 and Southern Utah by 19 about 80% of the time.
Southern Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Idaho State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Idaho State 28, Southern Utah 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 11.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Idaho State / Southern Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho State -10.5 → Idaho State -9.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | -339 / +256 |
| DraftKings | Idaho State -10.5 → Idaho State -9.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | -339 / +256 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho State -3.5 | 63.9 | 40% |
| Market consensus | Idaho State -9.5 | 61.5 | 27% |
| Blended projection | Idaho State -8.5 | 61.5 | 28% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern Utah win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Idaho State -3.7 · market Idaho State -9.5 · difference +5.8 pts (Southern Utah view)
- Total
- model 63.9 · market 61.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 5.8 pts more toward Southern Utah than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Idaho State 33.8, Southern Utah 30.1 | Idaho State 60%right winner | 0.3 | 11.9 |
| New formula | Idaho State 33.7, Southern Utah 29.1 | Idaho State 62%right winner | 0.6 | 10.8 |
Final: Idaho State 28, Southern Utah 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Idaho State vs Southern Utah: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Idaho State | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.0 | 33.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 29.6 |
| Yards per play | 6.55 | 6.66 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32 | 6.35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 162.8 | 219.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 310.8 | 219.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.6 | 199.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.4 | 200.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.33 | 0.64 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.18 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33 | 2.36 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 46.8% | 48.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.3% | 42.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.2% | 15.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 14.5% |
| Havoc rate | 12.9% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8% | 12.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.35 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.81 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 72.3 | 65.9 |
| Stat | Idaho State | Southern Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.5% | 47.9% |
| Passing success rate | 44.5% | 50.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.6% | 37.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.5% | 29.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.3% | 45.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.3% | 40.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 39.8% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 40.9% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho State schedule · Southern Utah schedule · all Week 4 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.